Global Stocks Stumble as Yields Rise on Tight US Labor Market

• Bonds sold off and global equity markets failed to fully shake off New Year blues on Thursday after U.S. unemployment data indicated a resilient labor market, tempering expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024.
• The focus has turned to the U.S. central bank's efforts to steer the economy to a soft landing. "The real federal funds rate doesn't need to be as high and as restrictive as it currently is. Still, the Fed will need more evidence of inflation progress to get those cuts," said Roosevelt Bowman, senior investment strategist at Bernstein Private Wealth Management in New York.
• The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Separately, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) National Employment Report showed U.S. private employers hired more workers than expected in December.
• "The combination of better-than-expected ADP and lower-than-expected-jobless claims was enough to inspire a little bit of selling pressure on Treasuries," said Ben Jeffery, a U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. The reports "definitely moderate the odds of a near-term rate cut from the Fed just given the fact that the job market remains in a relatively good place," he said.
• Fed policymakers have indicated they expect three rate cuts this year. Futures traders have trimmed the total estimated reduction by December to just over 137 basis points (bps) from expectations of more than 160 bps late last year.
• Minutes from the U.S. central bank's December policy meeting offered few clues on when the Fed might start cutting rates. Traders see a 66.4% chance for at least a 25 bps rate cut in March and about a 92% probability in May, according to the CME Group's FedWatch.

(Sources: Reuters)