World Bank Raises 2024 Growth Projection for Jamaica to 2.0% 

• According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects Report (2024), Jamaica’s economic growth is projected to reach 2.0% in 2024, 0.3 percentage points (pp) above its previous estimate of 1.7% in its June 2023 report. 
• The upward revision to the growth forecast in 2024 reflects stronger external demand due to improved U.S. growth expectations, as well as higher-than-expected government spending. Inflation in the region is anticipated to continue slowing, converging to national targets by late 2024. As such, central banks are expected to continue reducing rates.
• Further, as monetary policy eases, investment growth is expected to pick up in 2024 and 2025. Consequently, the local economy is also expected to continue growing in 2025, albeit at a slower pace, with real GDP growth projected to reach 1.4%. 
• The drag on economic activity from earlier monetary policy tightening is expected to diminish throughout 2024. Additionally, the expected further easing in policy rates amid moderating inflation is set to bolster growth in 2025. 
• The Bank also revised its 2023 projection to 2.3% from the 2.0% estimate in June 2023.
• However, it is important to note that there are downside risks to the forecast, including a possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt energy markets and send oil prices soaring. Additionally, persistent core inflation in advanced economies could lead to higher-than-expected global interest rates and tighter financial conditions, constraining monetary and fiscal policies in Latin America and the Caribbean. Lastly, the ongoing El Niño weather pattern heightens the risk of climate-related disruptions and disasters. 

 (Sources: World Bank and NCBCM Research)