Barbados 2024 Growth Forecast Revised Up Slightly On Stronger US Growth

• Fitch Solutions has marginally revised its 2024 growth forecast for Barbados from 2.9% to 3.1% on the back of a brighter US growth outlook, which will lift tourist arrivals and demand for goods exports.
• While this forecast still implies that real GDP growth will decelerate noticeably from its 2023 estimate of 6.3%, largely due to base effects. The economy is projected to have returned to its pre-pandemic size in 2023 and, as such, will no longer benefit massively from post-COVID normalisation going forward.
• That said, final consumption will continue to benefit from falling inflation, a low unemployment rate, and strong growth in public sector wages. Furthermore, the upward revision is underpinned by stronger-than-anticipated external demand from source countries (US and UK). 
• Risks to the growth projections for Barbados stem from the FY2024/25 budget – which is yet to be released, and dramatic changes to the US and UK growth outlooks.  

(Source: Fitch Solutions)