From El Nino to La Nina

• After a strong El Nino, global weather is poised to transition to La Nina in the second half of 2024, a pattern typically bringing higher precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia, and India and drier weather to grain and oilseed-producing regions of the Americas, meteorologists and agricultural analysts said.
• While it is too early to predict its intensity or impact on crops, meteorologists said, a shift towards a mild occurrence of La Nina, when surface ocean waters cool off the tropical west coast of South America is looming.
• "The vast majority of weather models are pointing towards a weak La Nina in the second half of the year or towards the last quarter. One out of maybe 25 weather models is showing a strong La Nina," said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at U.S.-based Maxar.
• Last year's El Nino, which followed three La Nina years, saw heavier rains in parts of the Americas that boosted farm output prospects in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains.
• The effects of El Niño will vary by geography and season, but its impact will be most apparent in the primary, infrastructure and electricity sectors amid changing precipitation patterns. For example, Peru’s economy is likely to suffer, owing to high temperatures and floods along the northern coast, which typically cause infrastructure damage, and reduce agricultural and fishing output. 
• Meanwhile, Argentina’s fertile Pampas region will benefit from above-average rainfall, particularly. The opposite will occur in northern and northeastern Brazil, western Mexico, Colombia, Central America, and the Caribbean, where drier weather could hamper agricultural production and raise the risk of forest fires, especially in the Amazon rainforest.

 (Sources: Reuters & Economist Intelligence)