PIOJ Reports Estimates 1.9% Growth for December 2023 Quarter

  • The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy grew by an estimated 1.9% year-over-year for the December 2023 quarter. Speaking during the PIOJ’s quarterly briefing on February 21, Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, said the out-turn for the review quarter largely reflected the impact of higher levels of employment, increased productive capacity in the mining and quarrying industry and an increase in consumer confidence associated with the perceived favourable prospects for job opportunities.
  • The Goods Producing Industry grew by an estimated 2.3%, driven by improved performances in three of the four industries – Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing; Mining and Quarrying; and Construction. The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector grew by 2.4%, due to an increase in hectares reaped and higher output per hectare for five of nine domestic crop groups. Real value added for the Mining and Quarrying Industry also rose by an estimated 23.6%, reflecting an expansion in alumina production as crude bauxite output declined.
  • Real value added for Construction was estimated to have expanded by 1.4%, primarily due to increased supplies of cement and asphalt, as well as higher sales from firms operating within the sector. However, the overall pace of growth was stymied by a 27.8% decline in housing starts by the National Housing Trust (NHT) as well as a 2.4 percentage points decrease in the value of mortgages distributed by the entity.
  • However, the Manufacturing Industry contracted by 0.3%, stemming from lower outputs in the sub-industries – Food, Beverages & Tobacco, and Other Manufacturing.
  • Overall, the country’s short- to medium-term economic prospects are positive. Economic growth is anticipated for the remainder of fiscal year 2023/24. For the January to March 2024 quarter, it is projected that the economy will grow within the range of 1.5% to 2.5%, resulting in a fiscal year growth (April 2023 to March 2024) within the range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
  • However, this outlook is consequent on the continued growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners, which augurs well for increased external demand in areas like tourism.

(Sources: JIS & PIOJ)