Peru’s 2024 Growth Projections Remain Lacklustre As Environmental and institutional Headwinds Persist

• After experiencing a recession in 2023 (real GDP growth: -0.6%), Fitch expects Peru’s 2024 growth to only come in at 1.9%. This 2024 forecast is below the Bloomberg consensus of 2.2%, though it has been noted that consensus has moved towards Fitch forecasts in the last few weeks. 
• Weakness in growth was broad-based in 2023, linked to the impact of El Niño along with weaknesses in the fishing and manufacturing sectors and overall consumption.
• While mining exports are expected to hold up, and a recovery in both government and private consumption is anticipated, investment is likely to continue to disappoint due to widespread mistrust in Peru’s political institutions.
• Risks to Fitch’s view are tilted towards slower growth, as future protests may cause more disruptions. The outlook for the important fishing industry also remains highly uncertain, with weather-related risks persisting.  

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)