Oil Prices Steady as Demand Woes Offset Geopolitical Risk

• Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as concerns over conflict in the Middle East were offset by bearish demand sentiment ahead of monthly reports from oil agencies.
• Hopes of a ceasefire in Israel's war against Hamas have faded, with negotiations deadlocked in Cairo while the conflict threatens to widen as Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah continue to exchange fire. Though the Gaza conflict has not led to significant oil supply disruptions, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November in a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians.
• Airstrikes attributed to a U.S.-British coalition hit port cities and small towns in western Yemen on Monday. The Houthis said on Tuesday that they had fired missiles at what they described as a U.S. ship in the Red Sea.
• Traders are becoming inured to such attacks, said John Evans at oil broker PVM. "The inventory of oil that might be affected is not lost, it is just delayed - and with the new shipping times being part of the new norm, 'delayed' will eventually not be applicable," he said. "The grind and grind of this war will continue, as will the fall away of its relevance to oil prices," he added.
• The various factors supporting oil prices are being countered, however, by the demand outlook and increasing supply from producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). "Bearish demand sentiment and growing non-OPEC supply leave little room for the market to be bullish on oil prices at this time," said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil supply to grow to a record high of about 103.8Mn barrels per day (bpd), almost entirely driven by producers outside OPEC and the wider OPEC+ group of producers. The additional supply is from countries including the United States, Brazil and Guyana.
• As for China, the world's biggest oil buyer, crude imports rose in the first two months of the year compared with the same period of 2023. However, the imports were down from preceding months, continuing a trend of softening purchases. The market is awaiting demand estimates from monthly reports by OPEC, the IEA and the Energy Information Administration, analysts from ANZ said in a note. "While we believe the estimates will be largely unchanged, any upside surprise will ease demand concerns," analyst said.

(Source: Reuters)