GDP in LATAM to Slow in 2024

• Real GDP growth in Latin America will slow from 2.1% in 2023 to 1.5% in 2024, weighed down by high real interest rates and a somewhat weaker external backdrop.
• The slowdown will be driven primarily by Brazil and Mexico, while Chile, Colombia, and Peru will each see a notable growth recovery compared to 2023.
• Most crucially, the slowdown from Brazil (2.9% growth in 2023 to 1.6% in 2024) and Mexico (3.1% to 2.5%) will drag down overall regional growth. Those two markets account for roughly 60% of regional GDP, with their performance often dictating the overall growth of Latin America.
• Among those that will see faster growth are three of the region’s larger markets: Chile (0.1% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2024), Colombia (0.6% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024) and Peru (-0.6% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024). Venezuela and Uruguay will also see an acceleration in growth, benefiting from the temporary removal of US sanctions and an agricultural recovery, respectively.
• Risks to the regional growth forecast lie to the upside, given Fitch’s recent upward revision of the US growth projection and solid high-frequency data out of Brazil.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)