IMF Sees Smaller Slowdown in LATAM, Caribbean Region This Year

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its 2024 view for economic output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.0% from its January estimate of 1.9%, though it still expects a slowdown, the fund said on April 16 in its latest World Economic Outlook.
• The 2.0% GDP increase forecast for 2024 across the region compares to 2.3% in 2023 and a 2025 forecast of 2.5%. This is also above the World Bank's recent forecast of 1.6% growth in 2024 across the region.
• The overall slowdown in growth is due in part to smaller rates of growth in the region's largest economies. Yet Brazil's 2.2% growth estimate for this year is 0.5 percentage points higher than the January view.
• Notably, Guyana is forecasted to lead the pack in 2024 with a growth of 33.9%, while Antigua and Barbuda will register the second-highest growth of 6.1%. Other noteworthy growth projections for 2024 include Jamaica (1.8%). Trinidad and Tobago (2.4%), Barbados (3.7%), The Dominican Republic (5.4%), The Bahamas (2.3%), Panama (2.5%), and Mexico (2.4%).
• Elsewhere in the region, the IMF expects Argentina's contraction to deepen to -2.8% this year from 2023's -1.6%, with annualised consumer inflation of just under 250%.
• Overall, for Central America, the estimate is for 3.9% output growth, compared to 4.2% last year, while the Caribbean is seen accelerating further to 9.7% in 2024 from last year's 8.3%.

(Sources: IMF & NCBCM Research)