Local Point-to-Point Inflation Falls Further; 5.3% in April  

  • The average price paid for goods and services by Jamaican consumers decreased in April 2024, as reflected in a 0.7% decline in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI). The decrease was influenced by a downward movement in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division (2.3%) as a result of lower electricity, water and sewage rates.
  • Also contributing to the fall in the inflation rate was a 0.6% fall in the heaviest weighted index, the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. The index for the ‘Food’ group declined by 0.7%, while the index for the ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ group rose by 0.4%. The fall in the index for the ’Food’ group was mainly influenced by a 3.7% decline in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ due to lower prices for agricultural produce such as carrot, tomato, Irish potato, sweet potato, and yellow yam.
  • The decline in the index for the group ‘Food’ was, however, moderated by a 0.5% increase in the index of the class ‘Cereal and cereal products’, largely influenced by higher prices for rice. Additionally, the index for the ‘Transport’ division fell by 0.6%, reflecting the decline in the index for the class ‘Passenger Transport Services’.
  • The point-to-point inflation rate (April 2023 – April 2024) was 5.3%. This was 0.3 percentage points lower than the inflation rate for the period March 2023 to March 2024. The main contributors were the divisions; ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (5.3%), ‘Transport’ (9.5%) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (5.0%). For the calendar year-to-date, the inflation rate was -1.8%.
  • At its last monetary policy meeting in March, the BOJ kept the policy rate at 7.00% as it continued to monitor the pass-through effects of previous adjustments on deposit and loan rates. The next policy decision will be on the 20th of May, when it is expected that BOJ will maintain its policy rate at 7.00%.
  • While inflation has fallen over the last three months, farmers are still grappling with drought conditions. If these conditions persist, it may put upward pressure on food prices, the largest factor in the CPI basket.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)