Growth Outlook for June 2024 Quarter Generally Positive

• The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) says growth prospects for the economy during the April to June 2024 quarter are generally positive. In this regard, the Institute is projecting an out-turn ranging between 1.5% and 2.5% for the period, relative to April to June 2023.
• “Specifically, growth during this period is expected to be driven by the continued strengthening of the mining and quarrying industry due to higher capacity utilisation at alumina refineries, increased domestic demand, due to relatively high levels of employment, and continued strengthening in the global economy, which augurs well for external demand for Jamaica’s goods and services,” said Mr. Stewart.
• Mr. Stewart disclosed that preliminary data for the June 2024 quarter indicate some positive movements that support the projection. For the mining and quarrying industry, he said data for April 2024 indicate that heavier-weighted alumina production increased by 3.7%, while crude bauxite output decreased by 43.7%.
• Additionally, preliminary data on airport arrivals for April 2024 indicate a 4 percentage points decline. The Senior Director explained that this was due to the Easter holiday being celebrated on March 31, 2024, as against April 9, 2023.
• Meanwhile, the PIOJ advised that the growth projection for the fiscal year 2024/25 is within the range of 1% to 3%, with all industries forecasted to expand. The downside risks to these projections include increased factory downtime associated with aged production plants, weather-related shocks, and lower-than-anticipated external demand for Jamaican goods and services as a result of slower-than-expected growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners

(Source: JIS)