Fed Faces Hefty Data, Political Calendar Before Next Policy Meeting

• The nine days until Federal Reserve officials sit down to decide what to do next with interest rates features a veritable murderers' row of events to shape their move - everything from key employment and inflation data to a closely fought U.S. presidential election.
• However, it is not clear what among that mix might steer the U.S. central bank from what is seen widely as its most likely next decision - a second in a series of interest rate cuts aimed at keeping the U.S. labour market healthy and the economy out of recession as inflation cools.
• Importantly, rather than second-guessing their decision to ease policy, nearly all Fed officials who have spoken publicly since the Sept. 18 rate cut have said they are pleased with an unemployment rate at 4.1% and inflation that is now much closer to the central bank's 2% goal than before, and even the most hawkish among them have signaled support for further rate cuts to keep it that way.
• Updated projections published at the meeting last month show each of them believes there is at least a full percentage point of rate cuts to go before the policy rate gets to its longer-term "neutral" level. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a majority believe there's at least two full percentage points of room for cuts.
• A first look at third-quarter economic growth is also on the docket, which is expected to come in at a strong 3% annual rate, and an updated estimate of how many job openings there are for every job seeker, a favorite labor-market metric for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, that has been showing gradual cooling.
• The U.S. government is also due to release the October jobs report, which is expected to show job growth slowed, though the underlying trend could be hard to parse since recent hurricanes and an ongoing strike at Boeing could reduce the month's payrolls by as much as 100,000 jobs and push up the jobless rate.

(Source: Reuters)