Jamaica’s Economy Contracted by 2.8% for Q3 2024 according to PIOJ Estimates

• According to PIOJ data released on November 20, 2024, the Jamaican economy is estimated to have contracted by 2.8% for the quarter ended September 2024 (Q3 2024), reflecting declines in both the Services and the Goods-Producing industries.
• During the quarter, the contraction in the economy was broad-based. All the Goods Producing industries declined, while among Services industries only Finance and Insurance services grew marginally. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing went down 13.5%, leading to the decline in the Good Producing Industry, reflecting the adverse impact of Hurricane Beryl and other hydrological events on agricultural infrastructure, crops and livestock.
• Similarly, the Mining & Quarrying industry contracted by 15.2%, reflecting declines in the Bauxite & Alumina and Quarrying Sub-industries. Total bauxite production is down 17.1% with lower alumina and crude bauxite production being notable culprits. The Quarrying sub-industry also fell, particularly in sandstone and Limestone production.
• However, the remaining goods-producing sectors also declined. Manufacturing declined by 2.0% due to declines in Food, Beverages & Tobacco, while Construction was also estimated to have contracted by 2.8%.
• Declines in the Services Industry were led by the Electricity & Water Supply and Transport, Storage & Communication sectors, which saw the most significant contractions.
• The Electricity & Water industry declined by 5.8%, reflecting decreases in electricity and water consumption. Notably, there was a 10.6% decrease in usage for the largest power users amid significant damage and losses from Beryl and delays in electricity restoration in sections of the island. Additionally, there was a 1.0% reduction in water usage, primarily in the western division. Meanwhile, the Transport, Storage & Communication sector contracted by 2.8%, owing to a 7.8% decline in passenger movement and a 9.7% decrease in cargo handling, with significant drops at the Port of Kingston (down 10.8%) and Outports (down 22.6%).
• Amid the Q3 contraction, Jamaica’s economic outlook for Q4 2024 is negative due to the lingering effects of Hurricane Beryl, Tropical Storm Rafael, heavy rainfall and the U.S. State Department’s Level 3 Travel Advisory. Considering these after-effects, the PIOJ expects economic growth measured by Real GDP to fall within the range of -1.5% to 0.0%. If Jamaica’s economy contracted for a second consecutive time in Q4 2024, it would meet the technical definition of a recession.

  (Source: PIOJ & NCBCM Research)