Fed Officials See Interest Rate Cuts Ahead, But Only ‘Gradually,’ Meeting Minutes Show

• Federal Reserve officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labour market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts albeit at a gradual pace, according to minutes from the November meeting released on November 26, 2024.

• The meeting summary contained multiple statements indicating that officials are comfortable with the pace of inflation, even though by most measures it remains above the Fed’s 2% goal.

• With that in mind, and with conviction that the jobs picture is still fairly solid, Federal Open Market Committee members indicated that further rate cuts likely will happen, though they did not specify when and to what degree.

• “In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 per cent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes said.

• The FOMC voted unanimously at the meeting to take down its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. Markets expect the Fed could cut again in December, though conviction has waned among concerns that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs could stoke inflation higher.

• That said, there was no mention of the election in the minutes, save for a staff notation that stock market volatility rose before the November 5th election results and fell after. There also was no discussion of the implications of fiscal policy, despite anticipation that Trump’s plans, which also include lower taxes and aggressive deregulation, could have substantial economic impacts.

(Source: CNBC)