Brazil's Trade Surplus Shrinks by Nearly a Quarter in 2024

• Brazil's trade surplus shrank by nearly 25% in 2024 compared to the previous year, to $74.6Bn, official data showed on Monday, January 6, 2025, driven by higher imports as Latin America's largest economy outpaced initial growth expectations. Economic activity consistently outperformed expectations throughout the year, with the government estimating gross domestic product growth of 3.5% for 2024. The annual result followed a $4.8Bn surplus in December, which exceeded a $3.9Bn forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
• Despite the 24.6% drop from 2023, the 2024 trade surplus was the second largest since records began in 1989, trailing only the $98.9Bn surplus achieved the previous year.
• Exports remained largely flat, slipping 0.8% from 2023 to $337Bn, impacted by lower prices and volumes for key Brazilian commodities such as soybeans and corn. Iron ore also experienced a year-over-year decline due to price factors. These moves overshadowed the rise in crude oil shipments, which became Brazil's top export in 2024 - a position the government does not expect to sustain moving forward.
• Conversely, Brazilian imports rose 9% in 2024 over the previous year, to $262.5Bn, buoyed by strong domestic demand and increased investments, particularly in the acquisition of capital goods.
• For 2025, the trade surplus is projected to range between $60Bn and $80Bn, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services. This will likely be driven by continuous growth in commodity production.

(Source: Reuters)