IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Antigua and Barbuda

  • On March 13, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Antigua and Barbuda and endorsed the staff appraisal.
  • In concluding the 2025 Article IV consultation, the Executive Directors of the IMF endorsed the staff’s appraisal, as Antigua and Barbuda’s post-pandemic economic expansion continues. Economic activity, boosted by tourism, is estimated to have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with growth estimated at 4.3%, driven by strong tourism and one-off events (including the 4th International Conference on Small Island Developing States and the T20 Cricket World Cup). As the recovery matures, the IMF projects economic growth to moderate from 3% in 2025 to 2.5% over the medium term.
  • The recovery in nominal GDP, along with improved fiscal balances, brought down the public debt from around 100% of GDP in 2020 to 67% in 2024. However, gross financing needs are projected to remain around 10% of GDP in the medium term.
  • The fiscal primary balance improved to 4.6% in 2024, aided by indirect tax increases, a broader economic recovery, and one-off factors (e.g., nearly 2% of GDP from an asset forfeiture and unusually low capital spending). The 2025 Budget envisages stronger tax revenues and higher capital spending. The recent improvement in tax revenue is welcomed by the IMF, with further domestic revenue mobilization needed in the medium term to ensure fiscal sustainability.
  • Risks are currently tilted to the downside, emanating from elevated uncertainty about the global outlook, a deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation, commodity price volatility, climate-related vulnerabilities and capacity constraints in the construction sector.
  • However, upside risks stemming from stronger demand for tourism, improved air connectivity, new cruise port facilities, hosting of special events and the intensification of productivity-enhancing structural reforms, which could support higher medium- and long-term growth are also present.

(Source: International Monetary Fund)