IMF Cuts Latam and the Caribbean 2025 GDP Growth Estimate

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects economic output growth in LatAm and the Caribbean to decelerate in 2025 to 2.0% from last year's 2.4% expansion, down from a January estimate for 2.5% growth.
• "The revisions owe largely to a significant downgrade to growth in Mexico," the fund said, "reflecting weaker-than-expected activity in late 2024 and early 2025 as well as the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States, the associated uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, and a tightening of financing conditions." Mexico's economy, strongly intertwined with that of the United States, is now forecast to contract 0.3% this year from a previous 1.4% expansion as U.S. tariffs bite into exports.
• Brazil, the region's largest economy, is seen slowing to 2.0% from a January view of 2.2% GDP expansion. Argentina's 5.5% growth forecast for 2025 is an uptick from the 5% expansion seen in January. Colombia is seen growing 2.4%, Chile 2.0% and Peru 2.8%.
• For Central America the estimate is for 3.8% output growth this year, slightly slower than the 3.9% rate in 2024, while the Caribbean is seen decelerating to 4.2% in 2025 from last year's 12.1%.
• The IMF cut its view of global economic growth in 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January as the U.S. lifted tariffs to the highest in a century.

(Source: Reuters)