IMF Praises Guyana’s Rapid Economic Transformation
IMF Praises Guyana’s Rapid Economic Transformation
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended Guyana’s rapid economic transformation and strong macroeconomic performance following the conclusion of its 2025 Article IV Consultation. Guyana’s economic transformation is advancing strongly and broadening in scale. Rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output, and large-scale public infrastructure investment supported the highest real GDP growth rate in the world, averaging 47% per year since 2022.
Despite the strong economic performance, inflation reached 2.9% by the end of 2024, up from 2% in 2023, driven largely by higher food prices.
In terms of fiscal position, the overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1% of GDP in 2022 to 7.3% of GDP in 2024, reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure.
That said, driven by higher oil exports, Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24.5% of GDP. Consequently, gross international reserves surpassed US$1Bn, while the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1Bn in 2024, reaching US$3.1Bn (over 12.5% of GDP).
Looking ahead, the economy is expected to grow, inflation should rise slightly and the fiscal deficit and the current account surplus should narrow. The economy should grow on average by 14% per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth. Positive spillovers from the oil sector and improvements in infrastructure, productivity, and resilience are also expected to boost the real non-oil GDP growth. While inflation is projected to edge up to around 4% in 2025, the overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025.
Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. On the upside, additional oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investments, including strengthening energy resilience, would further bolster Guyana’s long-term economic prospects, while expanding construction activity would support higher short-term non-oil GDP growth. Downside risks stem from overheating pressures, which, if not contained, would lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation
