U.S. State Department Revises Travel Advisory for Jamaica

  • On May 29, 2025, the United States (U.S.) Department of State moderated its travel advisory for Jamaica, reducing the advisory from “Level 3 – Reconsider Travel” to “Level 2 – Exercise Increased Caution”. This comes two months after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio pledged to revisit the advisory during a joint press conference with Prime Minister Andrew Holness, citing “impressive progress” made in reducing violent crime.
  • While the adjustment to Jamaica’s travel advisory will have only a limited impact on Jamaica’s tourism-heavy economy, it reflects positively on the ongoing strength of the bilateral U.S.-Jamaica relationship and Jamaica’s success in reducing crime.
  • Jamaica noted a 43.3% decline in murders in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025) compared to Q1 2024, with overall incidents of serious crime from January 1 to April 12 falling by 18.6% compared to 2024. While the advisory acknowledges this progress, it also stresses that Jamaica continues to see elevated crime rates, urging travellers to avoid certain areas of the country.
  • The advisory revision also does not change Fitch’s growth forecast for the tourism-dependent economy. Tourist arrivals to Jamaica declined by 5.6% year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025, while the total number of visitors from the United States declined by 6.1% for the same period. However, this decline is likely driven primarily by economic factors, including subdued U.S. domestic demand and ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainty.
  • With visitors from the United States accounting for 71.2% of total stopover visitors in 2024, dampened U.S. demand will continue to pose headwinds to Jamaica’s tourism-dependent economy in 2025.
  • That said, despite ongoing trade upheavals regarding the U.S., Prime Minister Andrew Holness reaffirmed Jamaica’s commitment to strong bilateral relations with the U.S., a sentiment shared by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This healthy bilateral relationship will likely help mitigate external risks to Jamaica’s economy and political outlook, especially when faced with a volatile Trump administration.

(Source: Fitch Connect)