Consumer Prices Rise in May

  • Local Consumer prices for May 2025 were up 0.4% relative to April 2025, and 5.2% relative to May 2024, according to newly released data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
  • The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in the prices of goods and services purchased by households for consumption, rose from 141.3 in April 2025 to 141.9 in May 2025 (+0.4%). This upward adjustment was primarily driven by a 1.5% increase in the index of the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division1. Additionally, an increase in prices for meals resulted in the index for ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ rising by 0.9%.
  • However, food costs remain relatively flat, with the heavily weighted index for ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ rising only marginally (0.1%). This reflects higher prices for ‘Fish and Other Seafood’ (+1.0%), ‘Cereals and cereal products’ (+0.4%) and ‘Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals’ (+0.4%) that were offset by declines in the costs for ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ and ‘Fruits and nuts’ of 0.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
  • With the May outturn point-to-point inflation (P2P) rose 5.2% for May 2025. This is slightly down from the 5.3% P2P inflation in April 2025. The marginally lower P2P inflation outturn in May relative to April is consistent with the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) expectations of stable inflation in the near term.
  • That said, the risks to the inflation forecast are skewed to the upside. Inflation could inch higher if the effective tariff wall rises higher than projected, resulting in a larger impact on imported inflation and inflation expectations. Higher inflation could also result from further escalation in geopolitical tensions, especially with the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, which could negatively impact international supply chains and cause a spike in energy prices.

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1Influenced primarily by a 4.4% rise in the index of the ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ group, which was largely impacted by higher electricity rates.

(Source: STATIN and BOJ, NCBCM Research)