Jamaican Economy Expands in Q1 2025; Growth Outlook Positive

  • The Jamaican economy grew by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2025 when compared to Q1 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, (STATIN).
  • Increased output in both the Goods-Producing and Services industries, which expanded by 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively, were the primary drivers of the expansion in economic output. Growth in the Goods-Producing sector was broad-based. The Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry recorded the strongest increase at 3.1%, followed by Manufacturing (1.7%).
  • The Construction industry rose by 1.4%, while Mining and Quarrying expanded by 0.7%. Within the Services sector, most industries experienced growth, although there were declines in Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair and Installation of Machinery (-0.8%), and Real Estate and Business Activities, which fell by 0.4%.
  • Jamaica has adopted the United Nations’ 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008) and the Jamaica Industrial Classification 2016 (JIC 2016). The overhaul rebases constant-price GDP calculations to 2015 from 2007 and incorporates updated data sources, including the 2017 Household Expenditure Survey (HES), to better capture household spending and informal sector activity.
  • According to STATIN, the methodological updates resulted in an average increase of 7.8% in historical GDP levels between 2015 and 2023. Overall, the changes are intended to provide a more accurate reflection of Jamaica’s economic structure and improve the comparability of its data with over 100 countries now using the SNA 2008 framework. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has validated Jamaica’s transition, noting improved cross-country comparability. STATIN said a full National Income and Product Report for 2023 will be published by July 31, 2025.
  • Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects that the economy will continue to expand throughout the remainder of FY2025/26. Preliminary indicators point to growth in the June 2025 quarter, supported by stronger activity in tourism and its related services. For the full fiscal year, real GDP is forecasted to recover within the range of 1.0 to 3.0%, largely reflecting gains in the Mining, Tourism, and Construction sectors. The BOJ expects this positive trend to continue into FY2026/27, in line with its previous economic outlook.

(Sources: STATIN & BOJ)