S&P Upgrades its Outlook on NCBJ and NCBFG on Improved Banking Industry Operating Conditions

  • On October 6, 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded the outlooks on National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd. (NCBJ) and NCB Financial Group Ltd. (NCBFG) to positive from stable, while affirming the long- and short-term issuer credit ratings at ‘BB-/B’ and ‘B-/B’ respectively.
  • The action follows S&P’s September 25, 2025, upgrade of Jamaica’s sovereign rating to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-’, citing sustained primary fiscal surpluses, reduced debt levels, and broad political consensus around fiscal discipline. The upgrade prompted an improvement in Jamaica’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA), with the industry risk score improving from ‘8’ to ‘7’, and the economic risk trend revised to positive from stable.
  • S&P highlighted that healthier macroeconomic fundamentals are underpinning the banking sector’s resilience. Jamaica has recorded two consecutive years of current account surpluses averaging 2.9% of GDP, supported by strong tourism earnings, high remittance inflows, and stable external debt. These surpluses have bolstered central bank reserves, while fiscal discipline and monetary independence have improved the government’s capacity to support the financial system in periods of stress.
  • The rating agency described Jamaica’s banking system as stable and well capitalised, with manageable credit risks and non-performing loan ratios of 2.4%-2.6%. NCBJ’s asset quality has remained steady, with non-performing assets averaging 3.1% over the past three years, supported by a largely secured loan portfolio. Meanwhile, group-level diversification at NCBFG through Clarien Group Ltd. (Bermuda) and Guardian Holdings Ltd. (Trinidad & Tobago) continues to stabilise revenue and mitigate concentration risks in cyclical sectors such as tourism and construction.
  • The positive outlooks on NCBJ and NCBFG reflect S&P’s expectation that Jamaica’s improving operating environment could lead to a BICRA anchor revision to ‘bb’ within 6–18 months. S&P noted that both entities are expected to sustain strong capitalisation, prudent credit management, and stable earnings as economic fundamentals strengthen. Should these trends continue, the long-term ratings on NCBJ and NCBFG could be raised by one notch, contingent on a further upgrade of Jamaica’s banking industry anchor and continued sovereign stability.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)