IInflation Accelerating, Hurricane Melissa’s Impact Not Yet Reflected

• Local Consumer prices rose 0.7% in October, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). This upward movement was primarily driven by the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+1.5%) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+0.8%) segments.
• The outturn in the Food division was influenced mainly by higher prices for some agricultural produce, such as sweet potato, tomato, carrot, and cabbage in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’. Higher housing, water and fuel prices reflected increased electricity rates.
• However, this was tempered by a 0.3% decline in the index for the ‘Transport’ division due to lower petrol prices.
• The point-to-point inflation rate between October 2024 and October 2025 increased by 2.9% versus 2.1% in September. This outcome reflects upward contributions from the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (3.0%), ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (4.0%), and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (4.0%) divisions.
• Given that the effects of Hurricane Melissa are expected to persist for some time, a further uptick in inflation is anticipated in the coming months. The most affected division is likely to be ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages,’ as the hurricane significantly disrupted agricultural production in some of the country’s most productive parishes - St. Elizabeth, Trelawny, and Manchester. St Elizabeth alone accounts for some 20% of the island’s agricultural output according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Mining, Floyd Green. This is expected to exert upward pressure on food prices, with potential spillover effects on related divisions such as ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services.

(Sources: STATIN, NCBCM Research)