Fitch Affirmed Jamaica at 'BB-'; Outlook Stable

  • On February 5, 2026, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Outlook.
  • The rating affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect expectation that although the economic damages and recovery costs from Hurricane Melissa will be large, leading to an economic contraction in 2025-2026 and a deterioration in fiscal metrics, the government will return to its fiscal consolidation efforts beginning in 2027.
  • Despite considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of Hurricane Melissa, Fitch sees headroom at the current rating to accommodate the hurricane's expected short-term negative economic growth and fiscal metric implications.
  • As a result of the economic damages, Fitch estimates an economic contraction of 1.5% in 2025, followed by a further 2.6% in 2026. Large hotels were largely insured and have been able to rebuild relatively rapidly, although much of the 2025-26 tourism season has been lost. The industry is expected to recover 85% of its capacity by May 2026 and 95% by year-end 2026, according to the Tourism Ministry.
  • Tourism receipts, representing roughly 20% of GDP in 2024, are estimated to have declined by nearly 15% yoy in 2025, and are projected to fall by a similar level in 2026. However, Fitch expects remittances, which represented 16% of GDP in 2024, to rise substantially, partially offsetting tourism losses.
  • Despite a projected $8.8 billion economic hit and a temporary rise in debt-to-GDP toward 70% by end 2026, Jamaica’s "BB-" rating is anchored by strong governance indicators, and a proven bipartisan commitment to returning to fiscal surpluses. Of note, Fitch projects that the government will run primary surpluses again in FY2027 to bring debt/ GDP back toward the target of 60%.
  • Negative Rating Triggers include external shocks (e.g., natural disasters or a sharp fall in tourism) or medium-term fiscal loosening, such as spending pressures or revenue shortfalls, leading to a sustained rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. While a positive rating action would necessitate improved public finances, including a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio and interest burden, or a faster-than-expected economic recovery that accelerates debt reduction.

(Source: Fitch Ratings)