• U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in November, breaking a three-month decline, driven by plans for significant purchases like vehicles and houses despite concerns about higher prices and interest rates.
• While the improvement in confidence was notable, around two-thirds of surveyed consumers still perceive a recession as likely within the next year, contrasting with economists' predictions of slow growth instead.
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in November, surpassing expectations. Optimism was more pronounced among households aged 55 and older, with the present situation index slightly decreasing and the expectations index rising.
• Consumers express worries about rising prices, but their 12-month inflation expectations fell to 5.7%. The share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates was the smallest since April 2021, aligning with market expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in mid-2024.
• Financial markets responded positively, with stocks rising, the dollar falling, and U.S. Treasury prices increasing. Consumers showed increased intentions to make significant purchases, and online spending during Cyber Week exceeded expectations.
• The labour market remains resilient, supporting consumer spending, but concerns about job availability are emerging. Additionally, the survey indicates more consumers plan to buy a house, though affordability challenges may arise due to high mortgage rates and a shortage of available properties.

(Source: Reuters)

• Around 1,000 ships pass through the Panama Canal each month carrying a total of over 40Mn tons of goods—about 5% of global maritime trade volumes. However, water levels in this vital link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have fallen to critical lows because of the worst drought in the canal’s 143-year history.
• As a result, the Bank of Jamaica’s Monetary Policy Committee has expressed concern that worsening shipping delays in the Panama Canal may begin to affect the bank’s efforts to tame inflation.
• The issue was discussed during the September meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) and was itemised in the minutes as one of the developing "risks" that must be monitored as a drought, exacerbated by a severe El Nino weather system in Panama, continues to plague water levels at the Gatún Lake, which feeds the locks of the key global trade conduit.
• According to Panama Canal authorities, the drought requires them to reduce the number of daily transits from 29 to 25 ships per day starting this month, and in the proceeding weeks, they will reduce vessel transits even more until it declines to 18 ships a day in February. That represents between 40% to 50% of full capacity. Before the restrictions, up to 38 vessels traversed the canal daily.
• Therefore, economies like the Jamaica, which relies on the canal for trade, should prepare for more disruption and delay.
• Though the inflation outturn has fallen within the BOJ’s target range for the past two months, 5.9% and 5.1% for September and October, respectively, the delays could spark another round of inflationary shocks as the costs of moving goods increase.

(Source: IMF)

• First Rock, through its wholly owned subsidiary First Rock Latam One SRL, has signed a deal to acquire two parcels of land in Allajuela, San Jose for the construction of two new KFC restaurants.
• The restaurants will be leased to Intelectiva Costa Rica S.A., the operators of KFC Costa Rica, for a term of twenty years.
• Diversification across industries and jurisdictions is part of the company’s core strategies to bolster revenue and increase shareholders' value.

(Source: JSE)

• The economy of the Dominican Republic registered a growth of 3.6% last October, which is the highest monthly expansion, higher than the 3.1% of September and the 2.6% inter-annual increase in the third quarter, the Central Bank informed last Friday.
• In a press release, the issuing entity specified that the increase registered in October is mainly explained by the excellent performance of the activities of hotels, bars and restaurants (9.0%), financial services (6.4%), construction (4.7%), agricultural sector (4.1%), manufacturing of free zones (3.4%), commerce (2.8%) and local manufacturing (1.5%), among others.
• The agency highlighted the excellent performance of construction, with favourable variation rates for the fourth consecutive month. In accumulated terms, the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) registered an average variation of 1.9% in January-October 2023 concerning the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the 10.8% expansion of hotels, bars, and restaurants, the activity that contributed the most to the growth this year and that explains approximately 40% of the same.
• The excellent performance of hotels, bars, and restaurants was mainly due to the arrival of tourists, which in the first ten months of the year stood at 8.3Mn, a historical record, and is expected to exceed 10 million visitors by the end of 2023, with foreign exchange income to the country amounting to more than 10Bn dollars.
• Given the preliminary results corresponding to October, the issuing entity affirmed that the Dominican economy continues its recovery process to reach its potential growth rate in 2024. Notably, the Dominican Republic is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.
• According to the Central Bank, the strength of the macroeconomic fundamentals and the resilience of the productive sectors allow to continue advancing in the economic reactivation in a context where inflation would remain within the target range of 4.0 % ± 1.0%.

(Sources: Dominican Today & Fitch Solutions)

• Bermuda has begun the process of joining the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). Premier David Burt obtained the go-ahead from the United Kingdom Under Secretary of State for the Americas and Caribbean, David Rutley, during a trip to London last week for the Joint Ministerial Council, according to Deputy Premier Walter Roban.
• Roban stated that Rutley expressed support for Bermuda making an application and encouraged Bermuda “to start the process and make an offer, to which we will respond,” He stated that Britain would be consulted at every stage prior to Bermuda’s application being filed.
• “We are now researching and exploring everything that is required to submit a complete application. Official discussions have begun with the United Kingdom to determine whether an entrustment is required or whether an amendment to the existing entrustment is sufficient,” Roban said.
• In response to “the elephant in the room,” immigration and the free movement of CARICOM nationals, Roban stated that full membership will not necessitate Bermuda opening its doors to let visitors from member countries come and go as they like, and given Bermuda’s modest size, he believes the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons would not be accepted as a condition of membership.
• “At the moment, the CARICOM members who have opted out of free labour movement are Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Haiti, and Montserrat.” These countries have not signed or approved the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, one of nine protocols that revise the Treaty of Chaguaramas to establish the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME),” he stated.
• Bermuda is already benefiting from its status as an associate member through organisations such as the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) and CARIFTA. However, “Being a full member of Caricom will allow Bermuda to have a voice and vote on matters of policy addressed by Caricom that impact the whole region, particularly the issue around correspondent banking and de-risking,” he said.

(Source: St Vincent Times)

• Some major banks expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices, and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.
• The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%. Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the United Kingdom.
• A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative, cost-efficient production destinations.

(Source: Reuters)

• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled a £29.5Bn ($36.8Bn) private sector investment plan to reposition Britain as a top destination for foreign money. Key contributors include Australian funds IFM Investors and Aware Super, Spanish power company Iberdrola, and tech giant Microsoft.
• The investment is part of a broader strategy to kickstart the UK economy, offering permanent tax breaks for businesses to modernize infrastructure. The government aims to attract foreign investors in critical sectors such as clean energy, life sciences, and advanced technology to create high-quality jobs.
• The UK faces challenges in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) due to political and regulatory uncertainties stemming from Brexit. France has surpassed the UK in FDI projects, prompting a government review to enhance competitiveness. Sunak emphasizes the need to avoid subsidy races and create conditions for private sector investment.
• Contributions from various sectors, including finance (Blackstone, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Aviva) and technology (Microsoft), showcase a diversified investment portfolio. Nissan's commitment to building electric cars in the UK adds to the mix, indicating increased competition between states for global investment.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica generated just over US$1.22Bn in export earnings between January and July this year. This represents a 30.6% increase over the US$939.1Mn earned for the corresponding period in 2022, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) has reported.
• A statement from STATIN on Wednesday (November 22) indicated that the increased exports this year were primarily spurred by higher outflows of ‘Crude Materials’ (excluding Fuels) and ‘Mineral Fuels’. STATIN also reported increased earnings from domestic exports and re-exports during the review period. The Institute indicated that domestic exports climbed to US$926.9Mn, up from US$766.1Mn in 2022. Re-exports increased by 73.3% to US$299.8Mn.
• The top-five destinations for Jamaica exports were the United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom (UK), Puerto Rico, the Russian Federation, and Latvia. Revenue from outflows to these countries rose by 23.3% to US$856Mn.
• Meanwhile, Jamaica’s expenditure on imports between January and July 2023 rose by 1.5% over the corresponding period last year to US$4.43Bn. The spend for the first seven months of 2022 totalled US$4.37Bn. STATIN said the increase was largely attributable to higher imports of ‘Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods’, up 8.1%; ‘Consumer Goods’, up 14.3%; and ‘Capital Goods (excluding motor cars), up 38.2%.
• Jamaica’s top five trading partners for the review period were the USA, People’s Republic of China, Brazil, Japan, and Colombia. Imports expenditure with these countries increased by 2.7% to US$2.76Bn, relative to the corresponding period in 2022. This increase was largely due to higher inflows of mineral fuels from the USA, STATIN further indicated.

(Source: JIS)

• The Government has announced temporary reductions in Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC) fares. This forms part of measures to dampen the impact of the announced increases in public passenger vehicle (PPV) fares on the overall inflation rate. On October 10, 2023, the Government announced a 19% increase in PPV fares (excluding JUTC and the Montego Bay Metro (MBM)), effective October 15, 2023. A further 16% increase was also announced to take effect in April 2024.
• The Central Government is expected to provide the JUTC with the resources to finance the initiative. Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr the Hon. Nigel Clarke, made the announcement during a statement to the House of Representatives on Tuesday (November 21).
• He informed that effective January 1, 2024, there will be a reduction in the regular fare from $100 to $70, a decrease in the fare for children from $30 to $25, and for pensioners from $40 to $30. Additionally, effective April 1, 2024, there will be a further reduction in the regular fare from $70 to $50, from $25 to $20 for children while the fare for pensioners will be reduced from $30 to $25.
• “We anticipate that these temporary measures will have a mitigating effect on the impact of the private bus and taxi fare increases on the commuting public. I wish to reiterate that these are temporary measures designed and calculated to support the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) in its efforts to return and keep inflation within the target range,” Dr Clarke said.
• The BOJ’s monetary policy action, supported by prudent fiscal policy as well as a moderation in imported commodity prices, has resulted in a sharp decline in 12-month point-to-point inflation from a high of 11.8% in April 2022 to 5.1% in October 2023. However, the Central Bank advises that, as a result of the adjustments in PPV fares, they are expecting a reversal of the downward trend in annual inflation starting in November 2023.

(Source: JIS)

• Brazil's government projections for its public accounts in 2023 have substantially worsened, with the deficit before interest expenses now nearing the annual fiscal target, as indicated by its latest bimonthly revenue and expenditure report.
• The projected primary deficit for the year has been expanded to 203.4Bn reais (US$41.46Bn), up from the 141.4Mn reais estimate in September, considering the calculation methodology employed by the central bank, which is used to verify compliance with the annual fiscal target.
• The updated estimate, prepared by the Planning and Finance ministries, positions the 2023 deficit at a level equivalent to 1.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP), up from the 1.3% shortfall seen in September and very close to the 2.0% target set by the budget law. However, the worsening situation follows a decrease of 22.2Bn reais in projected revenues for the year, coupled with a rise of 21.9Bn reais in expenses.
• Unlike the Treasury's methodology, the central bank does not permit the inclusion of 26Bn reais from untouched funds allocated to workers earning up to two minimum wages, known as PIS/PASEP, which had not been previously redeemed. This amount was precisely what led the central government's primary result, as calculated by the Treasury, to show a surplus in September, while the central bank reported a deficit for the same period.
• Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron emphasised that his department does not agree with the central bank's approach, highlighting that, based on the Treasury's interpretation, the projected primary deficit for 2023 would increase by a smaller margin, reaching 1.7% of gross domestic product, the report said.
• New fiscal rules introduced by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's administration is aimed at achieving a primary deficit equivalent to 0.5% of GDP this year. Nevertheless, members of the government's economic team were long contemplating the feasibility of a 1.0% of GDP deficit, a goal that now appears increasingly challenging.
• According to Ceron, the central government's primary deficit for this year is expected to be 1.3% of GDP by the Treasury's criteria, benefiting from the late-stage accumulation of resources, which traditionally occurs when ministries are authorized to spend but, due to bureaucratic issues, do not effectively do so.
• The secretary also said the government is in discussions with the central bank on the potential submission of a bill defining the methodology of calculating the primary result, noting that the current practice of the central bank "is not the most modern approach."

 (Source: Reuters)