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T&T Political Environment Remains Vulnerable To Crime Published: 08 December 2023

  • Fitch continues to highlight risks to Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T) political stability stemming from the market’s high crime rate.
  • Trinidad and Tobago’s political and security environment remains plagued by one of the highest crime rates in the world, underpinned by the presence of multiple large gangs and its proximity to drug trafficking hubs in Central America.
  • Latest data from the Trinidad & Tobago Police Service (TTPS) reveals that the average number of crimes in the country in 2023 (excluding November and December) came in at 875.5, marginally exceeding the 2022 average of 875.
  • Elevated crime risks will continue to cap the market’s growth potential by for instance discouraging tourism and disrupting business activity in the country.
  • In the near term, upcoming general elections in 2025 may prompt the government to impose new measures to tackle rising crime in the country.
  • More generally, however, Fitch believes that falling inflation and a substantial increase in minimum wage will bode well for social stability by improving living standards.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

Dominican Republic Recognised for Reforestation Efforts By World Bank At COP28 Published: 08 December 2023

  • At COP28 (Eighth session of the Conference of the Parties), the Dominican Republic’s Minister of Environment and Natural Resources, Miguel Ceara Hatton, reaffirmed the government’s commitment to expanding forest cover and preserving water sources. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, Vice President of the World Bank for Latin America and the Caribbean, praised the Dominican Republic’s reforestation efforts.
  • The Dominican Republic is one of the few countries that have successfully maintained and expanded their forest cover in recent decades, noted Jaramillo. The country currently boasts a forest cover of 42% of its territory, with 38% dedicated to forestry and the remainder to agroforestry.
  • However, the Dominican Republic faces challenges related to crop-cutting practices, which can lead to fires and other risks. To address these issues, the government has launched the National Reforestation and Restoration Plan 2023-2024, intending to plant the equivalent of about 200 square kilometers.
  • The primary objectives of this initiative are to contribute to carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and, critically, to regulate the country’s water levels. Given that the Dominican Republic receives approximately 1,500 millimeters of rainfall and faces limitations in water storage capacity, this effort is essential.
  • Minister Ceara Hatton emphasized that the project’s success relies on government and community participation, with most of the financing coming from the government. Moreover, the private sector has shown interest, participating through a framework that guarantees the right to plant and harvest, fostering trust and encouraging long-term investments.

(Source: Dominican Today)

Russia And Saudi Arabia Urge All OPEC+ Powers To Join Oil Cuts   Published: 08 December 2023

  • Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's leading oil exporters, issued a joint statement urging all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on oil output cuts. The call emphasizes the importance of cooperation for the stability of global oil markets and the growth of the global economy.
  • The statement follows a recent OPEC+ agreement, where members, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, committed to new voluntary cuts of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day. This move aims to stabilise oil markets, with Saudi Arabia and Russia continuing their voluntary cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin's hastily arranged visit to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remains surrounded by mystery. The trip included discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The topics covered Gaza, Ukraine, Yemen, the Iranian nuclear programme, and deepening defense cooperation.
  • Both Putin and Crown Prince, who collectively control a significant share of global oil production, expressed a commitment to maintaining high oil prices. The leaders engaged in friendly talks, with Putin expressing eagerness for the next meeting in Moscow, reinforcing the importance of their countries' friendly relations amid global geopolitical challenges.

(Source: Reuters)

Weak US Third-Quarter Unit Labour Costs Point To Slowing Inflation   Published: 08 December 2023

  • The latest Labour Department report indicates a moderate rise in Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits, suggesting a gradual loss of momentum in the labour market, possibly influenced by higher borrowing costs dampening demand in the broader economy.
  • Despite the increase in new claims, the report also reveals a decline in unemployment rolls in late November after reaching a two-year high earlier in the month. The continuing claims dropped, indicating a nuanced picture of the job market.
  • Data, influenced by holiday-related volatility, rose slightly to 220,000 below economist forecasts. However, unadjusted claims increased significantly, with notable surges in California, New York, Texas, and other states, contributing to the overall complexity of the data.
  • Economic reports show a mixed picture, with a rise in job cuts but a significant drop compared to the previous year. Slowing economic activity, declining wholesale inventories, and a lower ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals contribute to an uncertain economic outlook.
  • Despite these challenges, the stock market is trading higher, and most economists are not predicting a recession, anticipating a potential rate cut by early 2024. The upcoming employment report is eagerly awaited, with expectations of a modest increase in nonfarm payrolls in November.

(Source: Reuters)

Sygnus Credit Investments Limited (SCI) Extends Closing Date of Preference Share Offer Published: 07 December 2023

  • Sygnus Credit Investments Limited (SCI) advises that it has extended the closing date of the Preference Share Offer to Friday, December 15, 2023; however, SCI has the option to close the Offer at an earlier date.
  • The extension allows investors who have expressed an interest in the offer to complete their application for the Preference Shares.
  • SCI also advises that the Offer is oversubscribed and that the Company is seeking to upsize the Offer to take advantage of all subscriptions. The Company is awaiting final approval to facilitate the upsizing of the Offer.

(Source: JSE)

Jamaica Makes Significant Strides Towards Anti-Money Laundering Compliance Published: 07 December 2023

  • Jamaica has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing its anti-money laundering measures, aligning itself with international standards, and steering clear of potential blacklisting. In a recent update, Jamaica demonstrated its commitment by being “compliant or largely compliant” with an impressive 37 out of 40 major recommendations vital to fortifying its anti-money laundering framework.
  • This development was unveiled during the Caribbean Action Task Force (CFATF) meeting held in Aruba. The meeting also saw the election of Jamaica’s Minister of Finance, Dr Nigel Clarke, as the deputy chairman—a testament to the nation’s dedication to the cause. Dr Clarke, who headed Jamaica’s delegation at the event, emphasised that this achievement resulted from a highly productive collaboration between various government ministries and agencies facilitated by the National Anti-Money Laundering Committee.
  • Just six years ago, Jamaica grappled with a much bleaker scenario, complying with a mere 17 of the recommendations set forth by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). This transformation showcases the nation’s unwavering commitment to strengthening its financial security measures.
  • Jamaica’s continued non-compliance with international standards could have grave consequences, including being labelled a ‘high-risk jurisdiction.’ This designation would expose the country to economic sanctions and a potentially tarnished reputation on the global stage.
  • The FATF has issued a stern call to Jamaica, urging it to demonstrate significant progress in implementing its action plan by February 2024.  Failure to do so could prompt the FATF to consider further measures, such as encouraging its member nations to exercise enhanced due diligence in their business dealings with Jamaica. This heightened scrutiny is a means to ensure that strategic deficiencies are promptly addressed.
  • Jamaica remains optimistic about its standing in the international financial community. Minister Clarke has expressed confidence that the worst-case scenario of blacklisting is unlikely, given that the nation has diligently fulfilled all legislative requirements. This should help to maintain the country reputation and international standing, which bodes well for obtaining credit and foreign direct investment (FDI).

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

Stopover Visitors Exceed Pre-COVID High by 30% in Bahamas Published: 07 December 2023

  • The Central Bank of Bahamas reported that stopover arrivals are above pre-COVID highs by more than 30% in September, with the economy forecasting to hold its “growth momentum” into 2024.
  • The banking regulator, unveiling its report on November’s monthly economic developments, praised “aggressive marketing” by The Bahamas for sustaining the country’s tourism rebound, although it noted that economic growth will slow in line with its traditional and medium-term “potential”.
  • Still, the Central Bank confirmed that The Bahamas had matched its pre-COVID full-year arrivals record from 2019 in the first ten months of this year.
  • “On a year-to-date basis, total arrivals strengthened to 7.2Mn visitors’ vis-à-vis 4.8Mn in the corresponding 2022 period,” it said. “Contributing to this outcome, air arrivals increased to 1.3Mn passengers from 1.1Mn in the prior year, reflecting gains in all major markets. Likewise, sea arrivals accelerated to 5.9Mn from 3.7Mn visitors the previous year.
  • Focusing on The Bahamas’ economic outlook, the Central Bank said: “The domestic economy is anticipated to maintain its growth momentum in 2023, supported by robust gains in tourism output. However, the pace of expansion is projected to slow as the economy converges closer to its medium-term growth potential.”

(Source: The Tribune)

Maduro Releases New Map Of Venezuela, Claiming Essequibo Region Published: 07 December 2023

  • In what can only be described as an act of aggression by Venezuela's President Nicholas Maduro, on Tuesday night he declared a new map of Venezuela incorporating the Essequibo Region of Guyana. This occurred after the nation's Sunday referendum, in which his government declared the annexation of Essequibo as a part of Venezuela a success.
  • In a Facebook post Maduro declared, "I ordered to immediately publish and take all schools, lyceums, municipal councils, public establishments, universities and in all homes of the country the new map of Venezuela with our Guayana Esequiba. This is our believed map!"
  • Following Maduro's social media proclamation, Dr. Irfaan Ali, the President of Guyana, addressed the Guyanese people assuring them that he and his administration will resolutely protect the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
  • "I address you on an unsettling development in relation to the unlawful claim by Venezuela to Guyana’s Essequibo Region, which constitutes more than two-thirds of Guyana’s national territory. As I made clear from the date the referendum was first announced, this is a direct threat to Guyana’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence, and in violation of fundamental principles of international law enshrined in the UN and OAS Charters," said Ali
  • Ali confirmed that Guyana would be bringing the matter to the United Nations Security Council for appropriate action to be taken by that body. He added," Further, we have engaged CARICOM, the OAS, the Commonwealth and many of our bilateral partners including the United States of America, Brazil, the United Kingdom and France.
  • The Guyana Defence Force is on full alert and has engaged its military counterparts including the US Southern Command. “By defying the Court, Venezuela has rejected international law, the rule of law generally, fundamental justice and morality, and the preservation of international peace and security. They have literally declared themselves an outlaw nation," Ali said.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

Weak US Third-Quarter Unit Labour Costs Point To Slowing Inflation Published: 07 December 2023

  • In Q3, U.S. unit labour costs declined at an annualised rate of 1.2%, signalling a slowdown in services inflation. This revision from the previously reported 0.8% decline supports the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation.
  • Nonfarm productivity increased at a rate of 5.2% in the last quarter, the fastest pace since Q3 2020. This, coupled with a moderation in wage growth in November, brightens the inflation outlook and strengthens expectations that the Fed might shift from tightening to cutting rates in Q1 2024.
  • The Federal Reserve, having raised interest rates by 525 basis points to the current range of 5.25%-5.50% since March 2022, is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The data on labour costs and productivity growth supports the Fed's strategy to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
  • The labour market is cooling, with reports showing a drop in job openings, a decline in wage pressures, and a potential slowdown in economic activity in Q4. This cooling and other economic indicators reduce the risk of inflationary pressures, making it easier for the Fed to consider rate cuts in 2024.

(Source: Reuters)

How Electric Vehicles Are Accelerating the End Of The Oil Age Published: 07 December 2023

  • Increased global sales of electric vehicles are significantly reducing the demand for fossil fuels, particularly in the transportation sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a peak in global oil consumption by the end of the decade, with the shift to electrification playing a pivotal role in decreasing oil demand.
  • Government policies supporting the transition to electric vehicles, such as subsidies and efficiency standards, have accelerated the adoption of EVs. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's $7,500 tax credit and similar measures worldwide aim to offset the higher initial costs of electric vehicles.
  • While EV sales are increasing, challenges include the need for even higher adoption rates to meet climate targets outlined in the Paris Agreement.
  • Economic factors, such as rising labour costs and interest rates, may impact the acceleration of EV production, raising uncertainties about achieving higher market shares. Disparities exist in EV affordability and infrastructure development worldwide, with China leading in both areas due to government subsidies and a vast number of charging stations.
  • In contrast, the United States faces challenges with higher EV prices and a lower number of public charging stations compared to China and Europe. Despite these challenges, EVs are expected to comprise a significant portion of new car registrations in the U.S. by 2030.

(Source: Reuters)