• Chilean President Gabriel Boric told a major copper industry conference he expects production at state-run miner Codelco to grow slowly this year and reach 1.7 million metric tons by 2030, and that he sees copper prices rising.
• Notably, driven by renewed interest in commodity assets, copper prices rallied 10% since the start of this year on the London Metal Exchange. Copper prices also hit a record high on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (Shfe) and neared a two-year high of $4.34 per pound last Friday on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, when prices hit $4.50 per pound, it could start to hurt copper demand, analysts believe.
• "The Codelco production will rebound," he said, offering a vote of confidence for the country's top copper producer, whose output last year hit a quarter-century low, at 1.325 million metric tons. Notably, Codelco is aiming to produce between 1.325 million and 1.390 million metric tons of copper this year,a target that at best would see it lightly overtake its 2023 output.
• At a time when global companies have raised concerns about long approval times for new mines and expansions, he said Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, is dedicated to speeding up the permitting process for mining projects.
• He also stressed the need for greater economic distribution of mining industry profits to local communities. Boric also said one of Chile's strong suits was ensuring long-term security for investors.
• Chile’s economy is at a crossroads. Strong policies have successfully brought down high inflation and reduced the large current account deficit that emerged during the pandemic. Increases in social benefits have provided some relief in response to discontent over inequality. However, investment and growth are still tepid and social gaps remain high. Overall Chile is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2024, up from an estimated 0% growth in 2023.

(Sources: Reuters & the International Monetary Fund)

• The European Union will be marginalised if it continues to shrink compared to other parts of the world; however, two former Italian prime ministers, Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, are proposing remedies. While anxious leaders welcomed Letta’s report about how to improve the bloc’s single market at their summit last week, they may lack the will to drink the necessary medicine.
• There are two ways of looking at the EU’s relative decline. The first is in terms of living standards. Here, what matters is not that developing countries, led by China and India, have been dragging themselves out of poverty in recent decades and so closing the gap on Europe, says Erik Nielsen, UniCredit’s chief economic advisor. Rather, it is that the EU has not been moving ahead as fast as the United States.
• EU income per head has grown 55% since the single market was created in 1993 when measured on a purchasing power parity basis. That’s not far behind the 65% gain enjoyed by the average American.
• However, the EU has only kept up because new members, such as Poland, have expanded very fast: that country’s income per head has almost quadrupled. By contrast, income per person in the bloc’s bigger and older members — Germany, France and Italy — is up only 37%, 35% and 20%, respectively, over the same period.
• The other way of looking at the region’s relative decline is in terms of power. Back in 1992, the EU was a geoeconomic giant. With 29% of global output and a strong position in leading technologies, it could set many world standards.
• By 2022, the bloc’s share of world output had shrunk to only 17% while the U.S. share was stable at 25% over the same period. What’s more, the EU now has only four of the world’s top 50 technology companies, Draghi noted in a speech last week.
• The EU’s relative economic weight is not just declining because other regions’ living standards are growing faster. Its currency has weakened, and its population is stagnant. This would not matter if the post-war global economic and political order was intact. But Russia has invaded Ukraine, while both China and the United States are undermining the world trading system. The EU is worried that it will be bullied by larger rivals.

(Source: Reuters)

• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday that interest rate cuts remained some way off, even if the passage of time and an absence of bad news on inflation had brought them closer.
• Pill said there were greater risks from cutting the Bank Rate too quickly, rather than too late - a view that grounded his cautious approach to policy, despite signs of a reduction in inflation pressures. Consequently, investors reduced their bets that the BoE will cut rates in the coming months as Pill spoke, with the central bank's August meeting no longer fully priced in as the starting point.
• "The combination of little news and the passage of time have brought a Bank Rate cut somewhat closer," Pill said in a speech at the London campus of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. "But the same lack of news gives me no reason to depart from the baseline that I already established," Pill added, saying that he stuck with his view in a March 1 speech that "the time for cutting Bank Rate remained some way off".
• Pill, seen as a centrist on the Monetary Policy Committee, declined to comment on whether markets were right to be focused on an August rate cut, and said it was right to maintain a restrictive stance for interest rates.
• "Economic growth in the UK has resumed, albeit at a modest rate, over the past few months following the technical recession we experienced in the second half of last year. And today's survey data certainly supports that view," Pill said.
• Although inflation looks set to fall below the BoE's 2% target in the coming months, Pill warned against getting "too excited" about this, given it would likely rise again as the year progresses. Markets had previously bet on slightly earlier BoE rate cuts after Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said last week he thought inflation might hold at 2% rather than rise.
• Finally, Pill said the BoE could move policy independently of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the latter of which looks likely to cut interest rates in June. He also welcomed the findings of former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's report into the BoE's forecasting processes. However, he cautioned against expectations that the Bernanke report will lead to a rapid change in how UK monetary policy is presented.

(Source: Reuters)

• Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade, Senator the Hon. Kamina Johnson Smith, noted that total trade between Jamaica and the Dominican Republic has increased by 161% over the last 10 years.
• This, however, has been largely driven by exports from the Dominican Republic to Jamaica. “But we are, as Jamaicans, also determined to continue to increase our exports, which are trending in the right direction to the Dominican Republic, as we also take advantage of the excellent opportunities in that market and seek mutually beneficial and balanced trade relations,” Senator Johnson Smith said.
• She was speaking during the second Dominican Republic-Jamaica Business Forum at the AC Hotel by Marriott Kingston on Thursday (April 18).
• Senator Johnson Smith noted that the forum serves to complement several private-sector-driven mechanisms and initiatives being instituted or recently put in place to forge greater economic ties between the countries.
• These, she pointed out, include a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between JAMPRO and ProDominicana to formalise trade and investment promotion and cooperation between Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. An MOU was also concluded between the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) and the Consejo Nacional de la Empresa Privada to promote trade and investment and commercial development.
• The initiatives mentioned will provide various platforms for companies in both countries to build and strengthen the ties between the nations for mutual economic benefits.

(Source: JIS)

• The Jamaica Bauxite Mining Limited (JBM), in an initiative to drive rural development, is ready to embark on a $445Mn project to establish a state-of-the-art Industrial Park at Lydford in St. Ann.
• Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Hon. Floyd Green, while addressing a town hall meeting organised by the Ministry and JBM at Golden Grove All-Age School in the parish on April 19, noted that the project is to commence this year.
• He pointed out that the initiative will go beyond just renovating the existing structure at Lydford, by revitalising communities in and around the area with the creation of new jobs and other opportunities.
• Green also announced plans for an agro park, the first of its kind in St. Ann, where farmers will be provided with land at reduced rates to boost agricultural production. Efforts were also outlined to address water scarcity across the rural communities. The Miniter explained that over the years, bauxite companies have developed and dug wells that can be resuscitated to bring water to farmers and communities. 

(Source: JIS)

• Days after the United States announced it would reimpose costly limits on Venezuela's oil sector, the South American nation braced for the consequences and its president warned that the "grave error" would also hit U.S. interests.
• Announced by U.S. officials, Venezuela's loss of a key U.S. license that allowed it to freely export and increase investment in its oil sector will hit the volume and quality of its crude and fuel sales, while prompting a flurry of requests for individual U.S. deal authorisations.
• Washington had warned it would not renew so-called license 44, absent progress by President Nicolas Maduro toward implementing an electoral roadmap agreed with opposition leaders last year that sought to ensure free and fair elections this year.
• Speaking at the Caracas headquarters of state oil company PDVSA, Maduro criticized the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden for making good on its "blackmail threat" in an address broadcast on state television.
• Venezuela's economy is suffering a long-running crisis, though the government has made strides on inflation control in the last year, bringing usually triple-digit 12-month figures down to about 68% in March.
• The country's prior six-month license did not provide enough time for Venezuela to secure long-term energy investments, but companies already in the country were negotiating expansions and projects linked to existing joint ventures with PDVSA.
• The loss of the U.S. oil license now raises questions about whether there will still be a push from Venezuela to control Guyana’s oil-rich territory, the Essequibo region, or whether the country will try to employ a more peaceful stance over the near term to maintain other global ties.

(Sources: Reuters & NCBCM Research)

• The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) Group has launched FINLAC (Financial Inclusion in Latin America and the Caribbean), a new initiative to promote financial inclusion by ensuring that the most vulnerable people in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) can access the financial services they need.
• FINLAC, a joint effort by the IDB, IDB Invest, and IDB Lab, serves as a one-stop shop for advancing financial inclusion, supporting governments and accompanying firms, and igniting innovation in developing and implementing effective policies, reforms, and business practices to create inclusive financial markets in the region.
• The IDB noted that Latin America and the Caribbean is one of the world's most underserved regions in financial services. About 27% of individuals aged 15 and older are excluded from formal financial services, compared to 3% in high-income countries. Only three in ten persons aged 15 and older have obtained a loan with a financial sector entity in the last year, as opposed to three in five adults in high-income countries.
• The IDB said that the initiative will prioritise understanding the barriers to financial inclusion faced by rural communities, indigenous and Afro-descendant populations, women, migrants, older adults, and micro and small businesses.
• It will also be promoting digital transformation to accelerate financial inclusion and resilience; enhancing payment ecosystems to facilitate fast retail transactions; and enabling responsible and consented financial consumer data-sharing with third parties, known as open finance.
• Finally, FINLAC will generate policy-relevant knowledge and data; test innovative business models and private-sector solutions; and disseminate recommendations, best practices and evidence on policies and innovations to build more inclusive financial markets, said Eric Parrado, chief economist and general manager of the Research Department at the IDB.

(Sources: IDB & Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• The Inter-American Development Bank on Saturday said leaders of 10 multilateral development banks committed to take action in five critical areas, including additional lending headroom totalling $300-400 billion over the next decade.
• The effort comes amid growing calls for these institutions to boost financing under favourable conditions to developing countries, which face greater challenges in climate transition and are more affected by the environment of higher global interest rates. Following a retreat held in Washington, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings, the MDBs said the agreed plan involves "joint steps to work more effectively as a system," as reported by Reuters.
• The group includes institutions such as the World Bank Group, the New Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the European Investment Bank, and the African Development Bank.
• The IDB said in a statement that the increased financing capacity will be supported by the offer of innovative financial instruments and by promoting the channelling of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) through MDBs. The IDB also foresaw actions providing more clarity on callable capital, which would help rating agencies better assess the value of callable capital.
• The MDBs also committed to boosting action on climate change, envisioning the delivery of a common approach to measuring climate results on adaptation and mitigation, and reporting climate financing jointly.
• The other pillars of work agreed upon on Saturday include strengthening country-level collaboration and co-financing, catalysing private-sector mobilisation, and enhancing development effectiveness and impact.

(Source: Reuters)

• The latest Federal Reserve survey shows a slight expansion in US economic activity from late February to early April. Firms anticipate stable inflation, hindering the central bank from lowering interest rates.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell now suggests a longer period of restrictive monetary policy due to consistently stronger-than-expected inflation data.
• Recent data challenges the positive trend Powell and colleagues relied on. Despite signs of inflation decreasing towards the Fed's 2% target, momentum has stalled, raising doubts about implementing the three planned rate cuts this year. Investors now anticipate the first cut in September, with dwindling odds for a second.
• According to the "Beige Book" survey, ten out of twelve districts experienced slight or modest economic growth, with a cautiously optimistic outlook among business contacts.
• While overall price increases were modest, some districts noted moderate energy price hikes, with manufacturers foreseeing potential upside risks in input and output prices. Firms expect inflation to remain slow, but their ability to pass on cost increases to consumers has weakened.
• The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy rate range, with slight increases in inflation and modest employment growth. Certain positions still face persistent shortages of qualified applicants, though wage growth rates have returned to historical averages in some areas.

(Source: Reuters)

• Tropical Mobility, an electric vehicle dealer majority owned by Tropical Battery Company (TROPICAL), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Santo Domingo-based Zero Emisión RD, to provide service on Tesla electric vehicles in Jamaica.
• Zero Emisión RD has been the leading electric vehicle (EV) dealer and service center in the Dominican Republic since the company was founded in 2016. It has been a major proponent of the shift to sustainable transport solutions in the neighbouring Caribbean country. The company has sold nearly 700 EVs over the past eight years, including more than 320 Tesla models.
• Under the terms of the MoU, Zero Emisión RD and Tropical Mobility will cooperate on training and technical support to deliver world-class service to battery electric vehicle drivers in Jamaica, including Tesla owners who had no local service up until now.
• The two companies will also work together to promote the adoption of specific electric vehicle brands and electric mobility solutions in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, and to advance the development of sustainable battery lifecycle solutions in both countries and across the wider Caribbean region.
• This forms part of the company’s broad strategy to expand further in the sustainable energy market by providing related products and services to grow the business.

 (Source: JSE)