• There was a 0.5% increase in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2023 resulting in the index moving from 132.2 to 132.9 in September. The main contributor to this movement was an 11.8% rise in the index of the ‘Education’ division, due to higher tuition fees for private schools at the primary level. The inflation rate was also impacted by the 0.7% rise in the ‘Transport’ division mainly as a result of higher petrol prices.
• The index for the heavily weighted ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division went up by 0.1% influenced by increases in the index for most classes within the division. However, there was a 1.9% decline in the index ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ class and this tempered the overall increase of the division. This was due mainly to lower prices for agricultural produce especially yellow yam and tomato, due to increased rainfall. For the group ‘Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, the index for the classes ‘Fruit and vegetable juices’ and ‘Coffee, Tea, Cocoa’ each increased by 0.7%, while ‘Water, Soft drinks, and Other non-alcoholic beverages’ went up by 0.4%.
• As of September 2023, the point-to-point inflation rate was 5.9%. This was 0.9 percentage points lower than the inflation rate for the prior point-to-point period due to lower prices for some agricultural products, as a result of favourable weather conditions. The chief contributors to the 5.9% inflation rate were the divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages', up by 9.8% and ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’ up by 12.0%. These increases were, however, moderated by the 1.9% fall in the index of the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division.
• On September 28, 2023, the BOJ had its monetary policy meeting, where it deemed it appropriate to maintain the policy rate at 7.00% and watch the pass-through effects on deposit and loan rates. Point-to-point inflation was projected to fall and enter the BOJ’s target range of 4.0% to 6.0% by the December quarter, which was achieved in September for the second time this year; the rate entered the range briefly in April. However, there is a risk of an uptick in inflation in October given the recent fare increase and rising oil prices due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. The BOJ forecasts that inflation will generally remain within its range, except for some months in 2024. The next policy decision will be on the 21^st of November, where it is expected that BOJ will maintain its policy rate at 7.00%.

(Source: STATIN)

• STATIN reported that the unemployment rate in July 2023 was 4.5%, 2.1 percentage points lower than in July 2022.
• In July 2023, the number of persons in the Labour Force was 1,377,300, an increase of 19,600 (1.4%) compared to July 2022. The male labour force increased by 8,400 (1.2%) to 734,400 and the female labour force by 11,200 (1.8%) to 624,900.
• The participation rate for males (71.2%) and females (60.1%) increased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively. The largest increase in the participation rate for persons by age group was for those 20-24 years (2.1 percentage points).
• ‘Elementary Occupations’ and ‘Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers accounted for the largest increases in the employed workforce. There were 173,800 persons employed in this occupation group in July 2023, an increase in employment of 23,500 persons (15.6%) relative to July 2022. Nearly two-thirds (63.0%) of this increase was in male employment. The number of persons employed as ‘Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers’ was 304,500, an increase of 13,800 (4.7%) compared to 290,700 in July 2022. Two-thirds (65.2%) of this increase was female. There were 142,700 ‘Clerks’ employed in July 2023 compared to 132,000 in the similar quarter of 2022. Approximately 89.5% of that increase was female.
• The number of persons employed as ‘Skilled Agricultural and Fishery Workers’ declined by 8,500 (4.7%) to 173,400 persons, 129,900 males and 43,500 females. The number of males and females employed in this group decreased by 7,300 (5.3%) and 1,200 (2.7%), respectively.
• The unemployment rate for July 2023 was 4.5%, which was 2.1 percentage points lower than the 6.6% in July 2022. The unemployment rate for males of 3.3% declined by 1.8 percentage points while the unemployment rate for females of 5.8% declined by 2.4 percentage points. For the youths, the unemployment rate was 13.2%, representing a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to 16.7% in July 2022.
• The number of persons Outside the Labour Force was 722,800 in July 2023. This represents a decrease of 16,800 (2.3%) compared to 739,600 in July 2022. There were 296,700 males and 426,100 females outside the labour force. The number of males declined by 6,700 (2.2%), while the decrease for females was 10,100 (2.3%).

(Source: STATIN)

• The Nassau Cruise Port has reported that, after a comprehensive year-over-year comparison of passenger data, the total number of passengers who visited the port as of September 2023 exceeded the 2022 passenger count by more than 11,000.
• The Nassau Cruise Port said by September 24, 2023, the port team had welcomed 3,224,210 cruise passengers for the year. By comparison, 3,212,603 passengers visited the port between January and December 2022.
• Company executives estimate that they will welcome 4.2 million passengers for 2023, which, if achieved, will mark a new total annual passenger record for the leading cruise port in the region.
• “We are thrilled to have reached this milestone, and to do so just in time to celebrate our fourth anniversary makes the achievement extraordinarily special,” said chief executive officer Mike Maura Jr.
• “Our success reflects the resilience and commitment of the cruise industry and is a testament to the dedication and hard work of the entire Nassau Cruise Port team, the Bahamian government, our community, and our industry partners. Together, we have transformed the Bahamian cruise tourism product and brand, quickly turning Nassau into a premier destination for cruisers around the world. The best is yet to come.” added officer Maura.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• Average prices in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) last month were 3.9% higher than in September 2022, according to the September Retail Price Index report of the Central Statistical Office (CSO).
• The Retail Price Index is a weighted average of the proportionate changes in the prices of a specified set or ‘basket’ of consumer goods and services between two periods of time. The RPI monitors the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services in 15 areas (locale) in T&T.
• The report indicated that the average prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages were 4.7% higher in September 2023 than in September 2022. Notably, the Index for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased from 147.0 in August 2023 to 148.2 in September 2023, reflecting an increase of 0.8%, according to the CSO.
• Additionally, there was a general upward movement in the prices of Irish potatoes, chilled or frozen beef, fresh beef, chilled or frozen pork, cucumber, chive, soya bean oil, onions, mixed fresh seasoning and other chilled or frozen chicken. However, the full impact of these price increases was offset by the general decreases in the prices of pumpkin, fresh whole chicken, table margarine, parboiled rice, white flour, oranges, tomatoes, grapes, eddoes and fresh steak.
• The CSO noted that a further review of the data for September 2023 compared with August 2023 reflected an increase in the sub-index for alcoholic beverages and tobacco of 0.3%. Notwithstanding, this period showed a decrease in the sub-index for clothing and footwear of 0.7% and health of 0.1%.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• The Resolution Foundation proposes a revision of the Bank of England's inflation target from the current 2% to 3%. This adjustment is seen as a strategic move to provide the central bank with more leeway during economic downturns and to alleviate pressure on public finances.
• A higher inflation target allows for the setting of higher nominal interest rates. This, in turn, grants the central bank the flexibility to reduce rates further during economic crises. By doing so, the Bank of England can deploy interest rate stimulus more effectively in challenging economic situations, potentially lessening the need for extensive government borrowing.
• The recommended adjustment in the inflation target is advised to be coordinated with other advanced economies. This coordination is essential to manage the potential adverse effects on the value of the British currency (sterling) that could arise from setting a higher inflation target compared to major economic regions like the United States and the eurozone.
• The report underscores the importance of adopting a more flexible monetary policy. Without such flexibility, the government's debt levels are projected to escalate significantly, possibly nearing 190% of national income within the next five decades. This increase in debt is attributed to various economic shocks and challenges that necessitate government borrowing. Addressing this issue is crucial for long-term economic sustainability and fiscal stability.

(Source: Reuters)

• Netflix has raised subscription prices for streaming plans in the United States, Britain, and France to increase revenue in a competitive market.
• Price increases include a $3 per month hike for the premium ad-free plan in the U.S. and $2 per month for the one-stream basic U.S. plan.
• Despite recent labour tensions in Hollywood and strikes affecting productions, Netflix continues to dominate viewer engagement, with its programming accounting for 8% of television screen time, second only to YouTube.
• The company aims to boost revenue as it faces market saturation and competition from major rivals, such as Disney and Warner Bros Discovery.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica is looking at implementing regulations for the short-stay accommodation market, which includes Airbnbs. Senior Strategist and Advisor in the Tourism Ministry Delano Seiveright says the direction being explored does not necessarily include tariffs.
• "We're being very considerate in how we approach it. The idea is not necessarily taxes. The idea is to ensure that it is safe, it is secure, and that it is properly marketed to ensure that destination Jamaica and brand Jamaica is protected at all costs," he explained.
• Seiveright argued that there are "persons in the space who we believe are doing nefarious things and we want to get on top of that".
• Several cities, including New York, have been clamping down on Airbnbs. The tourism strategist said Jamaica has been doing well compared with the rest of the region when it comes to Airbnb stays.
• "We met with Airbnb executives this year and last year who indicated to us that the growth in Jamaica is amongst the highest levels of growth in Airbnb stays in the entire Caribbean. And what we have is up to last year, we had 7,500 Airbnb stays in Jamaica. This year, we have already exceeded 10,000 Airbnb rooms/accommodations in all of Jamaica," he reported.
• Seiveright said about 29 per cent of tourists who visit Jamaica stay in an Airbnb or some other sort of short-term rental apartment, condo or villa.
• The regulation is a part of Jamaica’s efforts to protect brand Jamaica and ensure that all visitors are safe, and secure and have an excellent experience, whether they choose a hotel or other short-stay accommodations. 

(Source: RJR News)

• The Government is advancing its agenda for the long-term improvement of the country’s human capital with significant investment being made in education and training.
• Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Security, Hon. Dr. Horace Chang, noted that the move is in keeping with the Economic Reform Programme (ERP) that is geared towards achieving sustained economic growth and long-term development for Jamaica and all Jamaicans. He further highlighted that the facilitation of job creation and improving labour force productivity is critical to the process.
• Chang noted that the expanded mandate of the HEART/NSTA Trust with the removal of tuition and administrative fees for a significant number of programmes earlier this year, is critical in equipping Jamaicans will be skills and certification to gain employment and improve their lives.
• The appointment of Senator Dr. the Hon. Dana Morris Dixon as Minister without Portfolio in the Office of the Prime Minister, with responsibility for Skills and Digital Transformation, earlier this year, is indicative of the Government’s commitment to improving the cadre, capacity, and calibre of the Jamaican workforce, Dr. Chang added.
• He was addressing the private launch of the Courts Parkway Square (Portmore Pines) in St. Catherine on October 11. Dr. Chang commended Courts for opening its 29th store in Jamaica, noting that the latest investment is indicative of the company’s continued confidence in Jamaica and its people.

(Source: JIS News)

• Caribbean Community (Caricom) and United States trade officials have agreed to further strengthen their cooperation through the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) as they seek to grow their economic relationship even further.
• According to a joint communique issued by the parties, the two sides reaffirmed the importance of the bilateral trade and economic relationship and highlighted that two-way trade and investment have recovered strongly since the pandemic.
• “The delegations agreed that engagement under the TIFA is an important opportunity to grow their economic relationship even further, including by expanding and diversifying exports and growing investments,” according to the statement.
• It said also that during the meeting the delegations highlighted the commitment of Caricom and the United States to working together to support durable and resilient supply chains in their shared region.
• Furthermore, the statement said the meeting also underscored the importance of the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), the trade preference initiative intended to facilitate the development of stable Caribbean Basin economies by providing beneficiary countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for most goods.
• Both sides agreed to jointly explore ways to increase utilization of the CBI programmes “and thereby expand regional trade, by exchanging data, analysis, and methodologies related to utilization of the programmes”.

(Source: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Fitch Solutions has revised its 2023 forecast for Panamanian real GDP growth from 5.0% to 6.0%, which follows a 10.8% print in 2022. Fitch noted that it sees growth easing further to 3.0% in 2024.
• Growth will be underpinned by the government’s move to ramp up spending ahead of next year’s elections, helping to offset the drag from the drought that has impacted the Panama Canal and higher interest rates.
• Of note, Panama’s monthly activity indicator suggests that the economy has held up better than expected over H123, with growth seemingly having averaged around 9.0% y-o-y. However, Fitch expressed that no official GDP data for 2023 was available as of October 16.
• That being said, the monthly figures which are available are broadly consistent with comments from Minister of the Economy and Finance Héctor Alexander, who suggested in late September that the economy had grown by around 8.0% in the first half of the year.
• However, risks to Fitch’s forecasts are large and are related to data availability issues which make it very difficult to forecast with any real degree of accuracy.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)