• U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 14 months in August as the cost of gasoline surged, but the annual rise in underlying inflation was the smallest in nearly two years, likely giving the Federal Reserve cover to leave interest rates unchanged next Wednesday.
• The mixed report from the Labour Department on Wednesday was published a week before the Fed's policy meeting and followed data this month showing an easing in labour market conditions in August. Economists, however, believe officials at the U.S. central bank will continue to signal an additional rate hike this year given the stickiness in services inflation.
• Gasoline prices, which jumped 10.6% in August after climbing 0.2% in July, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI. Gasoline prices accelerated in August, peaking at $3.984 per gallon in the third week of the month, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That compared to $3.676 per gallon during the same period in July.
• Some economists believe inflation risks are tilted to the upside in the near term, citing rising insurance costs, especially for motor vehicles. Health insurance costs in the CPI report are expected to rise from October through next spring after the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics, which compiles the report, recently announced changes to its methodology for measuring these costs.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday said that the global debt as a share of economic output fell significantly in 2022 for the second year in a row, but the decline may be ending as post-COVID growth picks up pace.
• The IMF said in an update to its Global Debt Database that the world's total debt-to-GDP ratio fell last year to 238% from 248% in 2021 and 258% in 2020. However, the decline for the past two years, driven by strong growth and stronger-than-expected inflation, has recouped only about two-thirds of the COVID-induced spike in global debt. The ratio remains well above the 2019 level of 238% of GDP.
• China has played a central role in increasing global debt in recent decades as borrowing outpaced economic growth, and its debt burden has defied the moderating trend, growing to 272% of GDP in 2022 from 265% in 2021. Those levels are similar to the United States, which saw its total debt-to-GDP ratio fall to 274% in 2022 from 284% in 2021, according to the IMF report.
• The world has been on a debt "rollercoaster" for three years, but debt is likely to rise again over the medium term, and the IMF urged governments to adopt strategies to help reduce debt vulnerabilities -- both in public debt, household debt and non-financial corporate debt.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica is on course to welcome 3.88 million visitors for 2023, comprising 2.74 million stopover arrivals and 1.13 million cruise passengers, with estimated earnings of US$4.2 billion.
• Director of Tourism, Donovan White highlighted that those numbers are expected to grow to 4.59 million visitors and US$4.3 billion in earnings in 2024 and in 2025, the industry is projected to welcome five million visitors with corresponding earnings of over US$5 billion.
• Jamaica welcomed 2.77 million visitors between January and August, with tourism earnings reaching US$2.9 billion for the eight months.
• The arrival figure represents a 32% increase compared to the same period last year, when the island welcomed 2.09 million visitors, and is just 5.5% shy of the record 2.93 million in arrivals for January to August 2019. The remarkable surge in tourist arrivals and increased foreign exchange earnings is a testament to the unwavering dedication and collaborative efforts of Jamaica’s tourism stakeholders. The growth in the sector has been a key driver of economic growth after the COVID-19 pandemic subsided. Further, the projections suggest that the government is on track to earn more revenues from tourism as the industry continues to make a sizable contribution to growth in the coming years.
• Jamaica Product Exchange (JAPEX) is the premier trade event of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourist Association (JHTA), slated for September 11 to 13. The discussions will provide the Government and members of the JHTA with valuable information and insight to make strategic decisions aimed at further boosting the local tourism sector.

(Source:  JIS)

• The Board of Directors of NCB Financial Group Limited on September 8, 2023, decided that an Extraordinary General Meeting should be held for the company to consider an additional public offering (APO) of new ordinary shares.
• The number of shares sought to be issued by way of APO is expected to be up to 300 million. The NCB Financial Group stock closed Monday's trading session at $70 per share. If the offer were to be floated at that price, the company would be looking to raise up to $21Bn.
• There was no information suggesting what the funds be used for, however, the company will in due course issue a notice regarding arrangements for the extraordinary general meeting.

(Source:  JSE)

• Fitch Solutions forecasts consecutive decelerations in Trinidad and Tobago’s real GDP growth rate in 2023 and 2024 to 2.3% and 1.8% respectively, from 2.6% in 2022.
• The latest national accounts release shows that real GDP growth came in at 1.3% y-o-y in Q123. While this was a slight improvement from the Q422 rate of -0.9%, Fitch believes that economic growth will deteriorate towards the latter half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 thanks to slow export growth, somewhat tight fiscal policy and an elevated unemployment rate.
• Furthermore, Fitch’s somewhat pessimistic forecast is largely underpinned by poor export growth due to slowing hydrocarbon production growth as well as a bleak US growth outlook.
• Despite falling inflation, private consumption growth will also decelerate given elevated unemployment and limited support from the government.
• The US macro outlook remains the key risk to Fitch’s near-term growth forecasts. There exist rising upside risks of a ‘soft landing’ in the US, in which the economy manages to avoid a recession. These risks have grown in the last few months given strong real wage growth, loose fiscal policy and improving financial conditions. Should this materialise, Fitch would look to raise its growth forecasts for T&T, especially that of 2024.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) has reported that for the first eight months of 2023, remittances received amounted to $6,769.9Mn, marking a 3.9% growth compared to the same period in the previous year. This growth aligns with the projection of exceeding $10Bn by the end of the year.
• Specifically, in August, remittances reached $860.6Mn, reflecting a 1.4% increase compared to August 2022. However, this figure is $28.8Mn less than what was received in July this year when remittances totalled $889.4Mn.
• The BCRD attributes the behaviour of remittances to the economic performance of the United States, as 84.0% of formal remittance flows in August, approximately $643.6Mn, originated from the United States. Factors contributing to this include a low general unemployment rate of 3.8% in the U.S., similar to levels observed before the pandemic.
• Additionally, the non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) registered a value of 54.5 in August, indicating the sustained expansion of the services sector, where a significant portion of the Dominican diaspora resides.
• Looking ahead, the BCRD anticipates continued significant flows of remittances, exports, tourism income, and foreign direct investment throughout 2023. These inflows will continue to influence the relative stability of the exchange rate, with international reserves reaching $15,833.5Mn at the end of August, representing 13.2% of GDP and about 5.9 months of imports, exceeding international organization recommendations.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Japan's economy grew less than initially estimated in the second quarter and wages slumped in July, casting doubt over central bank projections that solid domestic demand will keep the country on course for a recovery.
• Capital expenditure and private consumption both fell in the April-June period, revised gross domestic product (GDP) data showed on Friday, underscoring the fragile state of Japan's economy, which is already facing headwinds from weakening Chinese and U.S. growth.
• Real wages adjusted for inflation fell in July for a 16th straight month in a sign households continued to feel the pinch from rising prices, separate data showed, boding ill for consumption. Japan's economy grew an annualised 4.8% in April-June, the revised data showed, down from a preliminary estimate of 6.0% growth and below market forecasts for a revised 5.5% expansion.
• The main factor behind the downgrade was a 1.0% drop in capital expenditure, compared with a preliminary flat reading, casting doubt on the BOJ's view that robust corporate spending will underpin Japan's post-pandemic economy. The revised decline was bigger than a median market forecast for a 0.7% fall. Private consumption, which makes up more than half of the economy, fell 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period, compared with a preliminary 0.5% decline.
• Exports remained solid in April-June with net external demand contributing 1.8% points to GDP growth, unchanged from the preliminary reading, but shipments to China slumped 13.4% in July to mark the 8th straight month of falls. Overall exports slid 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of August after a 0.3% decline in July, suggesting the global slowdown was taking a toll on the economy.
• Japan's economy has seen a delayed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic this year, as rising living costs and faltering global demand cloud the outlook. Given such uncertainties, Bank of Japan policymakers have stressed their resolve to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until the recent cost-driven inflation turns into price rises driven by domestic demand and higher wage growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• Everyone — from moms and pops to corporate treasurers and the mega asset managers — is piling in, won over by a unique opportunity: To lock in a 5% yield, and protect themselves from uncertainty over the US economy.
• With rates on cash and cash-like instruments at the highest in more than two decades and offering more income than benchmark US debt or stocks, assets in money-market funds have swelled to a record. But nowhere is that appetite for liquid, high-yielding instruments more apparent than in the market for T-bills where investors have snapped up more than $1 trillion of new notes in just the last three months.
• Demand has been so robust, that the number of bills sitting on balance sheets of primary dealers, the first port of call for Treasury debt sales, plummeted to about $45 billion last month after touching an all-time high of $116 billion in July. It has also made the paper more expensive, driving the difference between bill yields and so-called overnight index swaps — which investors use to measure the Fed’s path — back toward zero after climbing into positive territory for the first time since 2020.
• The narrowing trend has prompted some money-market funds that aren’t required to buy only T-bills to take a more cautious view as they await better entry levels and more clarity on the economy and the Fed’s policy path.
• With US central bank officials entering a quiet period ahead of their policy meeting Sept. 19-20, the monthly inflation report Wednesday will be closely watched for clues to how much still needs to be done to rein in price growth. While there’s little expectation of a hike this month, swaps traders are pricing in about even odds of a quarter-point increase in November.

  (Source: Bloomberg)

• Stakeholders are eager to strengthen relationships between Jamaica and Latin America. To facilitate this initiative, Adtelligent recently organized the "Keys to Latam" conference in Kingston, aiming to provide local and regional businesses with insights on cultivating these ties.
• CEO of Adtelligent Craig Powe says Jamaican businesses are set to benefit from a range of opportunities if they explore the Latin American market.
• He noted that CEO of Adtelligent Craig Powe says Jamaican businesses are set to benefit from a range of opportunities if they explore the Latin American market.
• Additionally, he noted that the region has a growing middle class that is driving demand for a variety of products and services. He added that the majority of business leaders in Latin American countries are 'Gen X' or millennials.
• As a testament to Jamaica's potential and success in the Latin American market, he pointed to Appleton Rum being the number two brand in Mexico at this time.
• Efforts to strengthen ties between Jamaica and Latin America, as seen with the recent "Keys to Latam" conference, hold significant potential for the Jamaican economy. The rising middle class in Latin America and their youthful business leadership offer lucrative opportunities for Jamaican sectors like trade, tourism, and manufacturing. Ultimately, this collaboration promises increased exports and investments, diversifying and bolstering Jamaica's economic landscape.

(Source: RJR NEWS)

• Tax Administration Jamaica (TAJ) is pleased to announce that four (4) of its Tax Offices have been ISO 9001:2015 certified by the National Certification Body of Jamaica (NCBJ).
• This certification means the revenue authority has acquired the seal of approval, for being in compliance with the internationally recognized standard for quality management systems. The Tax Authority, is one of 15 entities identified by the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service to undergo the World Bank funded certification activity
• Achieving this certification demanded rigorous commitment, including extensive staff training and a series of detailed audits at the certified locations. These audits ensured that TAJ's processes, documentation, and systems met or surpassed the exacting requirements of ISO certification.
• Additionally, TAJ was supported by the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, Agriculture and Fisheries (MICAF) through a lead consultant and supporting project staff, to guide the organization through the certification.
• The global, gold standard certification of the listed Tax Offices underscores Tax Administration Jamaica’s commitment to improving the customer service experience and quality standards, through documented reengineered business processes and procedures to meet the needs of the 21st century taxpayer, thereby making it easier to do business. He also indicated that this move will go a long way in strengthening the country’s economic programme, as doing business with the revenue services continues to improve and become easier.
• Tax Administration Jamaica continues to reengineer its business processes making it more convenient to do business, thereby improving compliance and ultimately resulting in a more tax compliant Jamaica.
• The ISO 9001:2015 certification secured by Tax Administration Jamaica signifies its commitment to operational excellence and enhanced user experience. This achievement will instill greater confidence among businesses and investors, leading to streamlined processes and a boost to the nation's economic environment.

  (Source: JIS News)