• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) reports that the consumer price index (CPI) for July registered a variation of 0.50%, less than the 0.64% recorded in June.
• Notably, the year-on-year inflation continues to gradually yield, reaching 9.43% as of July 2022. This is equivalent to a reduction of 0.21pp relative to the maximum rate registered this year, which was 9.64% in April.
• The BCRD indicated that the positive evolution of foreign exchange-generating activities has favoured the exchange rate’s relative stability, which has partially helped offset the impact of the imported component on prices.
• However, measures implemented by the Government, particularly the fuel subsidy in the local market and the reversal of the increase in the electricity rate scheduled for the July-September 2022 quarter, have mitigated the rate of price growth and contributed to the lower inflation in July.
• Furthermore, given the global economic environment, the Central Bank has adopted measures to contribute to the convergence of headline inflation to the target range of 4.0% to 1.0% throughout the policy horizon. In this regard, the monetary policy interest rate was raised by 50 basis points at the end of July 2022, from 7.25% to 7.75% per year.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Despite taking a US$11.6Mn loan from the IDB back in 2018 to strengthen the nation’s governance framework for the oil sector, several objectives were either not achieved, or, in cases where they were, are no longer being utilised by the current administration.
• According to an IDB report on the performance of the loan, a key goal for the bank was the creation of a development plan for Guyana’s oil and gas sector, given Guyana’s inexperience in handling such a massive and highly technical sector.
• According to the financial institution, Guyana is on track to build a strategy based on the experiences of nations that have developed an effective institutional architecture for the control of their energy resources, including Brazil, Colombia, Norway, and, most recently, Mexico.
• Importantly, the bank contended that Guyana must have a development plan for the sector as it would outline what mechanisms are to be implemented and over what period for the State to sustainably administer its resources, manage risks and opportunities, and incorporate oil revenues into the development and diversification of certain sectors.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• Ukraine's overseas creditors have backed its request for a two-year freeze on payments on almost $20Bn in international bonds, a regulatory filing showed on Wednesday, a move that will allow the war-ravaged country to avoid a messy debt default.
• With no sign of peace or a ceasefire on the horizon nearly six months after Russia's invasion began, holders of around 75% of the outstanding total agreed to Kyiv's proposal, documents showed.
• "Ukraine will save almost $6Bn on payments," said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in a statement. "These funds will help us maintain macro-financial stability, strengthen the sustainability of the Ukrainian economy, and improve the power of our army."
• With a monthly fiscal shortfall of $5Bn, Ukraine is heavily reliant on foreign financing from Western allies and multilateral lenders including International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. It has so far received $12.7Bn in loans and grants, Finance Ministry data show.
• The United States said this week it would provide an additional $4.5Bn to Ukraine's government, bringing its total budgetary support since Moscow began what it calls a "special military operation" to $8.5Bn.
• Ukraine also aims to agree to a $15Bn-$2Bn IMF programme to help shore up its economy, its central bank governor said, and the government expects to receive this assistance before the year-end.

(Source: Reuters)

• Investor hopes that global inflation is finally on the wane or that central banks can relax were thrown a curve ball by Britain on Wednesday even as oil prices continued to ebb. With markets awaiting minutes from last month's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, double-digit UK inflation readings for July cut across the global 'peak inflation' narrative and suggest central banks may have to do more to control it.
• UK consumer price rises topped 10% for the first time since 1982 - well ahead of forecasts, before fresh energy price hikes domestically and adding pressure for bigger Bank of England interest rate rises. While UK inflation had already been forecast to rise to 13% later this year, the strength of the price moves last month was jarring.
• The fresh angst sent 2-year UK government bond yields to their highest in 14 years and spurred interest rate markets around the world, even in the United States. New Zealand's central bank also announced its fourth consecutive half-point interest rate rise on Wednesday, with a promise of more rate rises to come there.
• The British surprise adds to a series of conflicting signals on global inflation and growth - especially from the United States. Tuesday's U.S. soundings included dire housebuilding data for July but rapid growth in manufacturing and upbeat earnings readouts from retailers such as Walmart, whose stock jumped 4% as it upped its outlook while flagging deep discounting to clear inventories.

(Source: Reuters)

• For July, the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7%, relative to the 0.8% increase witnessed in June.  The point-to-point inflation was 10.2% in the 12 months to July 2022, decreasing from the 10.9% reported in June 2022. This keeps inflation outside the BOJ’s target range of 4% to 6%, for the 12th consecutive month.
• For July, the increase in inflation was largely driven by the 1.4% increase in the index for the heavily weighted ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. All classes within the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division recorded increases with the classes: ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ (3.0%), ‘Cereals and cereal products’ (1.7%), ‘Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals’ (0.8%) and ‘Fish and Seafood’ (0.7%), having the strongest overall impact on the division.
• Also contributing to the upward movement in the CPI for July was an increase of 0.3% in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. This was mainly a result of increased water and sewage rates.
• Other notable divisional increases were recorded in the index for the ‘Transport’ division (0.4%), influenced mainly by higher petrol prices and increased toll rates for the East-West leg of Highway 2000; and in the index for the ‘Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods and Services’ division (0.8%), due primarily to higher prices for personal care products and services.
• The 12 month point-to-point inflation rate of 10.2% was influenced mainly by the point-to-point price changes for the divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (12.6%), ‘Transport’ (15.2%) and ‘Restaurant and Accommodation Services’ (19.1%).
• The current breach in the inflation range is in keeping with expectations, as the BOJ noted in May 2022, that inflation was projected to successively breach the target over the next two years, and is projected to peak within the range of 12.0% and 15.0% by June 2022. Rates will likely remain elevated in the short term despite a steady decline in global food and oil prices.
• Although global commodity and shipping prices are softening, the BOJ will likely administer a further policy rate increase at its next monetary policy meeting on August 18th, 2022 to contain inflation, given that inflation is still widely outside of the target range. The policy rate currently stands at 5.5%.

 (Sources: STATIN and NCBCM Research)

• Seprod Limited reported a net profit of J$1.58Bn for the 6 months ended June 30, 2022, which represents a 30.8% improvement over H1 2021.
• Revenue for the period was 40.2% higher than the $19.83Bn reported last year. The revenue growth was driven by the contribution of the recently acquired Bryden Group for the month of June 2022, robust export growth, improved product mix, improved production of fresh milk at the dairy farms, the launch of a new snack line and price increases.
• The percentage growth in net profit is less than that of the revenue growth as the company continues to absorb some of the cost increases, rather than passing the full extent of these cost increases to consumers. Total operating expenses rose 30.2% and direct expenses jumped 44.4% causing the cost of sales margin to increase to 74.7% of revenues relative to 72.5% in H1 2021.
• Overall, the global market remains volatile but management believes that the company may be at, or close to, peak prices on certain key raw materials which creates the potential for some cost retreat by Q4. This should support continued growth in the company’s profits in the following quarters. The acquisition of T&T-based AS Bryden Group is also expected to continue driving revenues and profits.
• Seprod’s stock price has increased by 6.8% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Monday’s trading session at $69.17 and currently trades at a P/E of 20.9x which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing Average of 16.6x.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic has just set another tourism record, as tourism in the popular Caribbean destination is growing at a dazzling pace in 2022.
• The month of July saw the most visitors to the Dom Rep in a single month in the country’s history, exceeding even that of December 2021.
• Minister of Tourism noted that if the pace continues, 2022 will be “the best year of tourism in history.” So far, the Dominican Republic has welcomed a total of 4.182Mn visitors in 2022.
• Importantly, the United States continues to dominate visitor arrivals to the country, followed by Canada, Colombia, Puerto Rico, Spain, Cuba and the United Kingdom.
• The tourism boom currently being experienced is expected to funnel revenues to the government, reduce unemployment and create more investment opportunities for the nation. However, a shock to the US labour market, or a slower recovery in overseas travel due to outbreaks of COVID-19 or Monkeypox, would limit tourist arrivals, consequently weighing on economic growth.

(Source: Our Today)

• While aggregate Developing Market (DM) growth in 2022 will still be greater than the pre-pandemic average, the growth forecast has deteriorated further in the face of persistently high inflation, poor consumer confidence, and increasingly hawkish central banks.
• DMs are expected to expand by 2.4% in 2022, which is lower than the 2.6% growth rate predicted in July but still higher than the 2015-2019 average of 2.1%. Of note, lower aggregate DM growth is mostly due to lower projected growth in the United States (down from 2.4% to 1.8%) and Germany (1.7% to 1.5%), and DM’s dependence on these countries for exports and imports.
• Some economies will grow slower than their pre-Covid five-year average in 2022, either because they are more vulnerable to conflict-related headwinds, such as eastern European countries, or because they are more impacted by lower growth in Mainland China.
• In addition, persistently high inflation is dampening consumer confidence due to its impact on purchasing power, with negative implications for consumer spending and thus headline growth in the months ahead. 
• After rising through to mid-June, DM government bond yields have since eased as investors have started to price in lower inflation in the medium term, amid more hawkish central banks and rapidly mounting growth concerns.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• India could scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports and cap the amount of stocks traders can hold to try to dampen record high domestic prices in the world's second-biggest producer, government and trade officials told Reuters on Monday, August 8, 2022.
• Late in the day, the trade ministry said it would restrict the export of some wheat-derived products like finely milled "maida" and semolina from Aug. 14, with only an inter-ministerial committee allowed to clear their shipment. Exports of the items are generally small.
• India barred wheat exports in May after the crop suffered a heatwave, but domestic prices still rose to a record high, and yet still, international prices are way above the domestic market, making it unviable for traders to buy from abroad.
• If the government does remove the duty, and international prices also fall, then traders say they could start importing, especially during the upcoming festival season, when higher demand typically drives domestic prices higher.
• Domestic wheat prices ended last week at a record 24,000 rupees ($301.57) per tonne, having risen 14% from lows struck after the government surprised markets on May 14 by banning exports, ending hopes that India could fill the market gap left by missing Ukraine grain. Domestic prices are still nearly a third lower than global prices, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trading firm, who described Indian wheat as the cheapest in the world.

(Source: Reuters)

• Germany's economy will lose more than 260 billion euros ($265 billion) in added value by 2030 due to the Ukraine war and high energy prices, spelling negative effects on the labour market, according to a study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).
• In comparison with expectations for a peaceful Europe, Germany's price-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will be 1.7% lower next year and there will be about 240,000 fewer people in employment, said the study published on Tuesday, August 9^th, 2022.
• The employment level is expected to stay at around this level until 2026 when expansive measures will gradually begin to outweigh the negative effects and lead to a plus of about 60,000 gainfully employed in 2030.
• One of the big losers will be the hospitality industry, which was already hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic and is likely to feel the pinch of consumers' waning purchasing power. Energy-intensive sectors, such as the chemical industry and metal production, are also especially likely to be affected.
• It is mentioned that if energy prices, which have so far shot up by 160%, were to double again, Germany's 2023 economic output would be almost 4% lower than it would have been without the war, according to the study. Under these assumptions, 660,000 fewer people would be employed after three years and still 60,000 fewer in 2030.

(Source: Reuters)