• Heading into 2024, analysts say the U.S. recession they'd been forecasting for two years isn't coming anymore. However, everyone else, from companies to investors, is still bracing for a slowdown caused by tepid consumer demand.
• The dissonance between the habitually bullish investment bank analysts and the more circumspect money managers is not new. What is different this time is the level of prudence and caution from some top companies as they outline their plans for next year.
• Real money managers are in no doubt about which side to trust. After months of being wrong-footed, sell-side analysts are a bit too bullish about growth prospects, Fed rate cuts, and a consumption recovery, they say.
• A year ago, many banks were forecasting a U.S. recession; however, consensus forecasts from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Barclays, are for global growth to be constrained in 2024 by elevated interest rates, pricier oil, and a weakened China, but with low odds for a recession.
• The last two years have posed challenges for macroeconomic analysts attempting to reconcile the dynamics of a post-pandemic recovery, substantial global stimulus, and the stance of hawkish central banks.
• Despite indicators suggesting a slowdown or recession, the consensus on the likelihood of a U.S. recession within a year has shifted from consistently above 60% in 2022 and mid-2023 to around 45%.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mortgage demand decreased in the past week despite a drop in average contract interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The rates reached their lowest level since June 2023, but the borrower response was tepid.
• Refinance applications fell by 2.0% after a 19.0% increase the previous week, yet remained 18.0% higher compared to the same period last year. Applications for purchasing a home also declined by 1.0% for the week and were 18.0% lower than the previous year.
• The Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates positive developments in the housing market despite a predicted "mild recession" in the first half of the next year.
• The expectation is based on the Federal Reserve's indication of multiple rate cuts, with the association forecasting a 22.0% increase in mortgage origination volume in 2024 to $2 trillion, driven by a 14.0% rise in purchase volume and a 56.0% surge in refinance demand.

(Source: Reuters)

• iCreate Limited (“iCreate”) advised that effective December 18, 2023, Mr. Kenneth Tomlinson was appointed receiver and manager by Sagicor Investments Jamaica Limited, the registered holder of a secured bond.
• A receivership is a remedy available to secured creditors to recover amounts outstanding under a secured loan in the event the company defaults on its loan payments. A receiver is appointed to take possession of and sell or liquidate the assets secured by the security agreement in order to repay the outstanding debt.
• This news comes following the return of Tyrone Wilson as CEO of the company in November after his resignation in August.
• Additionally, in August, iCreate was suspended by the Jamaica Stock Exchange due to a lack of submission of its audited financials and the non-appointment of a mentor, as required by the Junior Market Rules. The suspension has since been lifted.

(Source: JSE)

• The Tourism Ministry has reaffirmed its commitment to training and certifying a competent workforce to meet the impending influx of visitor arrivals in the coming years. Portfolio Minister Hon. Edmund Bartlett stated that the industry will generate 45,000 new jobs in the next few years, buoyed by the construction of new hotels and the expansion of room stock, which will soon reach 20,000 rooms.
• The Minister noted that the Jamaica Centre for Tourism Innovation (JCTI)- the Ministry’s training arm, is seen as a critical step in preparing workers to meet the demands of the expanding industry.
• In addition to the expanding room stock, the global tourism industry is gearing up for an influx of one billion more tourists over the next 10 to 15 years. Mr. Bartlett expressed an unwavering commitment to ensuring Jamaica is a preferred destination for global travellers. To achieve this goal, Minister Bartlett emphasised the importance of a well-trained workforce capable of delivering the highest level of service.
• “The future of tourism for an economy is about qualified competent staff because productivity is what drives economic growth, and we can only be assured of productive capacity if there is technical competence and the only way we know of technical competence is certification,” Mr. Bartlett stated.

(Source: JIS)

• Barbados’ current account deficit is expected to narrow from an estimated 8.4% of GDP in 2023 to 6.7% in 2024, normalising after double-digit deficits in 2021 and 2022. The narrower current account deficit is likely the product of a wider services trade surplus on the back of an ongoing tourism recovery. 
• The country’s ongoing tourism recovery is expected to continue next year, even as growth in source markets slows, while domestic demand should drop off somewhat in part due to fiscal consolidation.
• Arrivals data from the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows that 2023 is on track to be the best year for the sector since 2019. Arrivals through September are up 18.7% YoY, though they are still roughly 15.0% below the total at the same point in 2019.
• Fitch expects arrivals to continue to normalise in 2024. However, the entity noted that upward momentum will probably be capped by slower growth in the UK, US, and Canada, which account for the vast majority of arrivals.
• Nonetheless, Fitch sees minimal risks to Barbados’ external stability moving forward, given solid reserves and the country’s good relationship with the IMF.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• On Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) urged Brazil to reconsider its mandatory expenditures and dismantle trade barriers to bolster the potential growth of Latin America's largest economy.
• In its latest edition of the Economic Survey of Brazil, the OECD noted a lack of progress on its 2020 advice to make the federal budget more flexible by closely examining revenue earmarks, mandatory spending floors, and indexation mechanisms.
• The multilateral organization, which Brazil began to join last year, suggested that social benefits could be indexed to inflation rather than the minimum wage, for example. However, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who took office in January, has argued for raising the minimum wage more than inflation as a priority to boost families' disposable income.
• One impact of that is more mandatory government spending, as many federal expenses are indexed to the minimum wage.
• Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said in April that the government would propose new rules for the growth of mandatory expenses by the end of this year, a politically sensitive idea for the leftist government that has yet to materialize.
• The OECD also evaluated Brazil's trade openness in its report, noting that despite recent progress, it lags other emerging economies. The organization suggested that lowering trade barriers could ease access to foreign markets and help the country participate more in global value chains.

• The Federal Reserve dialled back its inflation projections on Wednesday, seeing projected core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) falling to 2.4% in 2024. The central bank also predicted that the core personal consumption expenditures price index will decline to 2.2% by 2025 and reach its 2.0% target in 2026.
• These new forecasts suggest a softer inflation picture in the next two years relative to September. Originally, the Fed had foreseen the core PCE hitting 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. While this may be so, in the post-meeting statement released last Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee said inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.”
• While the public watches the consumer price index more closely as an inflation measure, the Fed prefers the core PCE reading. The former measure primarily looks at what goods and services cost, while the latter focuses on what people spend, adjusting for consumer behaviour when prices fluctuate. Core CPI was at 4.0% in November, while headline was at 3.1%.
• Committee members also upgraded their forecast for gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is now expected to grow at a 2.6% annualised pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. However, projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
• Projections released by the Fed showed the central bank would slash rates to a median of 4.6% by the end of 2024, a three quarter-point reduction from the current targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The entertainment and telecommunications sectors are poised to encounter significant challenges in 2024. Global TV ad revenue is projected to decline by 18%, impacting executives, investors, and employees. In addition, uncertainties surrounding interest rates, regulatory policies, and overall growth prospects add to the complexities faced by these industries.
• In response to the challenging landscape, companies like Warner Bros. Discovery and Disney have strategically implemented measures such as job cuts and cost reductions. The primary objective is to bolster free cash flow, reduce debt, and present a more favourable financial outlook to investors. Notably, Disney's recent reinstatement of dividends signalled a potential positive shift.
• 2024 is anticipated to be marked by persistent uncertainties, particularly concerning interest rates, regulatory policies, and overall industry growth. Executives and industry experts foresee 2025 as a pivotal year, expecting increased clarity that could drive transformative deal-making in the media and telecommunications sector.
• However, regulatory challenges pose a significant hurdle to industry consolidation, prompting CEOs to express the need for policy changes that facilitate strategic mergers.
• The dance between major players like NBCUniversal, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Paramount Global adds a layer of uncertainty, with the potential for regulatory scrutiny on mergers and combinations of major assets. The industry is poised for a final round of consolidation, but concerns over regulatory approval timelines and potential obstacles remain prevalent.

(Source: Reuters)

• Consumer prices rose 1.6% in November, the highest monthly rate for the calendar year to date. This upward movement in inflation was influenced mainly by a 9.9% increase in the index for the ‘Transport’ division, given a 19.0% increase in route taxi and hackney carriage fares.
• ‘Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Relating to the Dwelling’ and ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ were the other notable contributors to inflation in November. Higher sewage and water rates were the primary drivers of the 1.3% increase in the former index. With higher prices for bread, chicken, and agricultural produce, such as tomato, carrot, and green banana, the index for Food and Non-alcoholic beverages rose 1.0%. Given the sharp increase in consumer prices for November, the point-to-point inflation rate was 6.3%, and fiscal year- to-date the inflation rate was 6.7%.
• Despite inflation rising above its target range, on November 21, 2023, the BOJ maintained its policy rate at 7.0% as it continues to monitor the pass-through effects of previous hikes on deposit and loan rates.
• According to the BOJ, inflation is projected to rise above the Bank’s target range of 4.0% to 6.0% between the December 2023 and March 2025 quarters. The projected acceleration in inflation primarily reflects the impact of the announced increases in select public passenger vehicle (PPV) fares in October 2023 and April 2024.
• The forecast also assumes that oil prices will be elevated over the next three quarters (December 2023 to June 2024). International grain prices are, however, projected to continue to fall in the context of buoyant supplies. In contrast, shipping prices are forecasted to remain low and stable, given a projected slowdown in global growth.
• The next policy decision will be on the 20th of December when it is expected that BOJ will maintain its policy rate at 7.0%.

(Sources: STATIN & BOJ)

• Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, says the country is expected to welcome over one million stopover visitors for the 2023/24 winter tourist season. He noted that the season is expected to surpass all previous records, making it the largest in the nation’s history.
• “This achievement underscores the unwavering confidence and support of tourists worldwide, as they continue to choose Jamaica as their preferred holiday destination,” the Minister stated. “Remember, the cruise numbers are not included here. We have already secured 1.5Mn seats across the markets of the world, and assuming a very low 75.0% load factor from the airlines coming in, we will be more than one million stopover arrivals for the season,” he added.
• “Through strategic partnerships and investments in infrastructure, the government aims to enhance Jamaica’s appeal and competitiveness in the global tourism landscape,” he stated.
• “As the winter tourist season begins, we can assure our visitors that their health and safety remain the top priority. Efforts will continue to be made to adapt and address any emerging challenges, ensuring an unforgettable vacation experience in Jamaica,” he added.

(Source: JIS)