• Disagreements about pension cuts between the Puerto Rican legislature and the federal board overseeing its finances have increased the risk that a deal with bondholders to end Puerto Rico’s bankruptcy will not move forward. 
• Fitch Solutions believes this scenario would be negative for Puerto Rico’s political and economic stability, as it could lead creditors to demand immediate repayment of their bonds while increasing the risk of public spending cuts, potentially driving social instability. 
• Even if a deal is made to support debt restructuring in the near term, the agency sees a risk that public pensions will see cuts in the long term, which would likely spark public protests.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Fitch Solutions forecasts that the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) will maintain its benchmark monetary policy rate at 3.50% through end-2021, in an effort to support an economic recovery that was hampered by a mid-year COVID-19 outbreak. 
• Fitch expects accelerating economic growth in the coming quarters will increase inflation to an average of 2.2% in 2022, from a forecasted 1.4% in 2021, which will push the CBTT to raise its policy rate to 3.75% in 2022. 
• In addition, it expects tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2022 will increase pressure on the CBTT to follow suit in order to stem capital outflows.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Stocks are trading near record high levels, but one Wall Street pro thinks the market momentum can continue thanks to healthy corporate profits. 
• Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, told CNN that the recent rally is all about "earnings momentum." 
• Many blue-chip companies have reported strong financial results and Belski thinks the US stock market should "continue to pace the global earnings recovery" well into 2022 and 2023. 
• Belski isn't worried that the Federal Reserve is going to end the Wall Street party fever. Even though many investors are worried about inflation right now, Belski said eventual interest rate hikes from the Fed will take longer than the market thinks. "We are coming from excessively low levels, crisis levels," Belski said. "Higher rates are a good thing. It shows the economy can stand on its own two feet."

(Source: CNN Business)

• Soaring energy prices have contributed to pushing Developed Market (DM) inflation significantly above pre-Covid levels, at 3.5% y-o-y in September 2021 according to Fitch Solutions’ estimates. 
• Energy costs have been driven up by a sharp economic recovery-induced rise in gas, oil and coal prices, up by 118.0%, 36.1% and 242.2% respectively since January 2021. 
• While all developed markets are exposed to energy price pass-through to inflation, some countries such as Japan and South Korea are more exposed owing to a higher reliance on non-renewable sources (gas, coal and oil) for electricity generation.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Cruise ships are set to return to Falmouth on November 8, following an 18-month absence due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Italian liner, Costa, a subsidiary of Carnival Corporation, will be making a much-anticipated call to the Trelawny capital. 
• Mayor Colin Gager, has said that the visit by the vessel is welcomed news for local officials, businesses, and residents. He indicated that plans are in place to welcome the Italian cruise liner as “some on the ground preparation” had started in Falmouth, including improving the the basic infrastructure, after the resumption of cruise shipping in Ocho Rios over two months ago. 
• Chief Strategist/Adviser in the Ministry of Tourism, Delano Seiveright, who was part of a delegation led by the Hon. Edmund Bartlett that met with cruise owners and officials in Miami, Florida, recently, told JIS News that the visit of the Costa cruise ship is only a “sample” of things to come. 
• Seiveright noted that Ocho Rios, which has been welcoming cruise passengers since August, has proven that Jamaica is adequately prepared to host ships during the COVID pandemic. This, he said, bodes well for other destinations, including Falmouth, and will open the gates for a plethora of ships to call on the island’s other ports in the coming months leading into 2022. 
• Continued recovery in the domestic cruise industry will support the tourism rebound. As at July 2021, there have been 716,221 tourist arrivals, which is below the 1.07Mn and 2.64Mn reported in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

(Source: JIS News & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica generated US$789.2Mn in export earnings during the first half of 2021, between January and June. The out-turn represents a 28.3% increase over the corresponding period last year, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported. 
• Director General, Carol Coy, said this was largely due to an increase in the value of exports from the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying industries, which rose by 25.0% and 9.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, expenditure on imports rose by 15.2% to US$2.7Bn during the period, largely due to higher imports of fuel and lubricants (+46.1%) and raw material/intermediate goods (+18.8%). 
• Despite the increase in import and exports, Jamaica recorded a decline in goods traded relative to the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic periods of 2019 and 2018, due to contractions in the local and global economies. 
• Measures implemented to restrict movement and contain COVID-19 transmission, including the closure of borders and factories globally, led to lower production levels and demand for some products. She pointed out that as a result, the value declined significantly in 2020, and despite increasing in 2021, the value of imports and exports has not yet returned to their pre-pandemic levels. 
• Export earnings for the 2021 review period were 14.6% and 16.1%, below the out-turns for 2019 and 2018, respectively. The value of imports for the 2021 review period was also 17.9% lower than in 2019 and 7.9% less than 2018.

(Source: JIS News)

• The Government beat its 2021-2022 first quarter revenue targets by $90Mn, a top official has revealed, while also disclosing that the revised Budget will not increase the deficit. 
• Simon Wilson, the Ministry of Finance’s financial secretary, told Tribune Business that the Government’s lenders, creditors and the capital markets generally have all been informed that the supplemental Budget due to be presented to Parliament - possibly as early as this Wednesday - will not grow the deficit beyond the originally projected $951.8Mn. 
• He also disclosed that the Government’s “underwriters” have advised it to delay placing the $700Mn foreign currency bond that the former Minnis administration had designed as the centrepiece of its gross $1.852Bn borrowing plan for the current fiscal year. 
• No revised timeline for when it will be placed was given. However, Mr. Wilson said the advice to delay stemmed from international capital market uncertainties over US debt ceiling negotiations rather than any concerns peculiar to The Bahamas or its economic performance.

(Source: The Tribune)

• Cuba will open its borders and ease entry requirements next month after vaccinating most of its people with home-grown COVID-19 drugs, allowing it to welcome back overseas visitors and giving a shot in the arm to its ailing tourist industry. 
• Tough restrictions due to the pandemic, a drastic reduction in flights to Cuba, and a U.S. ban on most travel to the Communist-run island under former U.S. President Donald Trump have hobbled Cuba’s tourism industry and left it trailing behind regional competitors such as the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Cancun. 
• But as at Nov. 15, Cuba will only require visitors to carry proof of vaccination or a recent PCR to enter the country, replacing what were previously among the strictest protocols in the Caribbean, involving a quarantine period and multiple PCR tests. 
• A fully vaccinated population will prove a key selling point for an island already well-regarded for its safety, beaches and turquoise waters, said Francisco Camps, who supervises Spanish firm Sol Melia’s 32 hotels in Cuba.

(Source: Reuters)

• Global inflation will pose a policy challenge for central bankers as it continues to head higher, although not at the same pace as a few months ago. According to Fitch Solutions’ estimates, global inflation rose by 4.2% y-o-y in September, which is almost double the 2.2% average rate experienced in the five years prior to COVID-19 and well above most central banks’ mid-level inflation targets. 
• In turn, many emerging market (EM) central banks have been hiking, and some of them, such as Russia and Chile quite aggressively. Developed market central banks (DM), such as the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), have slowly become more hawkish. 
• Rising oil prices have also contributed to a rise in inflation expectations, as proxied by the US 10-year breakevens. This combined with supply chain issues suggest that inflation continues to broaden out across more countries, increasing pressure on central banks to turn more hawkish.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in October as concerns about high inflation were offset by improving labour market prospects, suggesting economic growth was picking up after a turbulent third quarter. 
• The survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed consumers are eager to buy a home and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles and major household appliances over the next six months. The share of Americans planning to go on vacation was the largest since February 2020, just before the nation was slammed by the first wave of COVID-19 infections, which is a positive sign for Jamaica’s tourism industry. 
• The consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 113.8 this month from 109.8 in September, ending a three consecutive month decline. "Consumers are more upbeat after a rocky third quarter and this argues for a strong finish for the economy in 2021," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

(Source: Reuters)