• Guyana’s fiscal deficit will narrow over the coming quarters, from an estimated 4.7% of GDP in 2021 to 3.5% in 2022, due to booming revenues from the oil sector and stronger economic activity. 
• In 2020, the budget deficit widened to 5.8%, from an average shortfall of 2.3% from 2015-2019, as revenues from the non-oil sector declined and the government enacted countercyclical measures to support household incomes. 
• That being said, rebounding economic activity drove a 21.2% y-o-y increase in total revenues in H121, largely because of a 20.8% increase in tax revenue, which outpaced expenditure growth of 16.5% in the first half of the year.  
• Fitch Solutions expect the Guyanese government will increase public expenditures to finance investment and strengthen public services, which will keep the budget in deficit in the medium term. 
• Public debt is forecast to decrease to 37.5% of GDP in 2022, from an estimated peak of 38.1% in 2021, and continue to fall in the longer term as the government runs smaller deficits and the economy continues to grow robustly. 

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Brazil’s economy had a bad start to the fourth quarter, underscoring the risks of an extended recession as policymakers further tighten monetary policy to battle above-target inflation.  
• The central bank’s economic activity index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.4% in October from the prior month, in line with the median estimate from economists in a Bloomberg survey.  
• September’s reading was revised down to a 0.46% decline. From a year ago, activity plunged 1.48%, more than double the drop estimated by analysts, the bank reported on Wednesday.  
• Latin America’s largest economy is losing momentum in the aftermath of the pandemic, even as businesses reopen and most of the population is vaccinated against Covid-19. With the annual inflation rate at an 18-year high, activity has shown signs of continued malaise, and both industrial production and services posted unexpected drops in October.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• British inflation surged to its highest in more than 10 years in November, jumping to 5.1% and potentially unsettling the Bank of England a day before it announces whether it is raising interest rates for the first time since COVID-19 struck. 
• Price pressure from a broad range of consumer goods and services, especially petrol, clothing, and footwear, lay behind the increase in inflation to its highest since September 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. 
• The reading exceeded all forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, which had pointed to a rise of 4.7% from October's 4.2%. 
• Many economists still expect the BoE to stay on hold again on Thursday, because of the potential impact on the economic growth of rapidly rising cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant, despite the inflation surprise.

(Source: Reuters)

• Financial markets will face a greater set of challenges as the economic cycle matures and new risks emerge. These include much higher uncertainty regarding the trajectory of monetary policy, rich valuations, slowing economic and earnings growth, as well as political risk emanating from the US midterm elections in November 2022.
• US equity markets were notably less volatile in 2021 than in recent years, so even a return to the pre-crisis level of volatility could come as a bit of a shock. 
• Fitch expects the US dollar to remain on the front foot and for commodity prices to ease, which could weigh on emerging market currencies.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Though 10.1% lower than the corresponding prior-year period, the KLE Group Ltd. continued to report losses for the nine months ended September 2021 ($57.95Mn). The outturn reflects a reduction in expenses (17.5% or $20.70Mn) driven by lower bank service charges, rent and licenses, and permits and a 9.3% increase in the company’s revenue. The revenue growth came on the back of higher income from the food, bar, merchandise, and rental segments of the company. 
• Although the company reported a decline in losses, there was also a decline in other operating income (-71.8%), increase cost of sales (+9.8%), and finance and depreciation cost (+74.7%). Currently, there are still restrictions on the entertainment sector in Jamaica. However, given the recently relaxed curfew hours, KLE should continue to see an improvement in its revenue for the final quarter of the year. 
• KLE’s stock price has appreciated by 71.3% since the start of the year and closed Tuesday’s trading session at $1.97 per share.

(Sources: KLE Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Fitch Solutions, now expects the Banco de México (Banxico) will hike its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, to 5.50%, during its December 16 meeting, due to the risk that recent upside inflation surprises de-anchor inflation expectations. Fitch forecast that inflation will likely end in 2021 at 7.50%, up from 7.00% previously. 
• In 2022, it is expected that Banxico will hike its rate to 6.50%, from the previous forecast of 6.00%, as inflation remains above-target and financial markets expect US monetary policy to tighten. 
• Deputy Finance Minister Victoria Rodríguez Ceja’s appointment to lead the Banxico board from January 2022 onwards increases uncertainty around monetary policy direction, with risks to both the upside and downside.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Trinidad Cement Ltd (TCL) yesterday morning announced an ex-factory increase of approximately 15 per cent in the price of the commodity. The price increase becomes effective on December 20, which is next week Monday. 
• In a message to its “valued clients,” TCL said: “We have been absorbing rising input costs for a long time and are now unable to continue to maintain our prices. “The main attributing cost factors are natural gas, imported spares and other raw materials that go into the manufacturing the highest quality cement brands”. 
• “We assure you that, in the interest of protecting the vulnerable construction sector, our price adjustment is only a marginal increase when compared to the escalating operating expenses with which we are faced.” 
• The cement company did not specify the quantum of increased costs or their contribution to the 15 per cent price increase. TCL, which is majority-owned by Mexico’s Cemex group, is at this time the monopoly supplier of cement to the local market.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Concerns over the Omicron coronavirus variant and fresh travel restrictions have led to a spike in hotel booking cancellations globally, online hotel search firm Trivago said on Tuesday, threatening to upend a fragile recovery in global tourism. 
• Cancellation rates increased to 35% since November and holiday travel planning was down 10%, the company said, adding that most travelers were choosing domestic destinations. 
• The Omicron outbreak, first reported in southern Africa, has led to a flurry of new testing rules and border closings, raising concerns ahead of the important Christmas travel season. 
• International flight searches from the United States were down between 35% and 39% in the first week of December, according to Booking Holdings Inc's travel website Kayak. They were down about 25% just before Thanksgiving, a day before the World Health Organization named the new COVID-19 variant and said it may spread more quickly than other forms, according to Kayak.

(Source: Reuters)

• Breadth across equity markets declined sharply in November as the market sold off and positioning turned very bearish, with the American Association of Individual Investors recording a surge in bearish positions. 
• However, the S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day moving average, which has provided support in the past and rallied by approximately 4.0% from the early December low to now. 
• Going forward, however, Fitch believes that the outlook will become more challenging for global equity markets as cross-currents arise due to slower earnings growth, mid-term election risks, and greater uncertainty concerning monetary tightening.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is commending the Government of Jamaica for its fiscal management of the country. IDB President, Mauricio Claver-Carone, said that the handling of the economy before the COVID-19 pandemic has put Jamaica in a great position to rebound. 
• Claver-Carone said that with the Government’s leadership, the IDB is interested in helping Jamaica accelerate its path to growing out of debt and the pandemic, and is particularly interested in forging new public-private partnerships (PPPs). He pointed out that the more they can work on improving the logistics in terms of transportation, including energy, and the skills of the nation, it will become more attractive to investors. 
• Claver-Carone told JIS News that the IDB is committed to making Jamaica the first choice for investment. He noted that Jamaica’s reputation among global investors is respected. As part of the mission to Jamaica, the IDB President and his team met with the leadership of JAMPRO, where they were able to get an update on the activities that have been implemented to foster growth. The bank is exploring how working with JAMPRO can drive greater investment from the digital services companies to Jamaica.

(Source: JIS News)