• Fitch Solutions has revised its forecast for Panama’s real GDP growth to -13.2% and 7.9% y-o-y in 2020 and 2021, from -8.9% and 4.8% previously, as severe mobility restrictions caused the region’s deepest contraction in Q220.
• While the government has begun to phase out many public health restrictions, limited fiscal support suggests a sluggish recovery over the coming quarters.
• Over the medium-term, however, the agency maintains an upbeat growth forecast for Panama, as a robust private sector, supportive international trade trends, and major infrastructure investments will drive sustained growth.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Rebounding exports following the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic will help to narrow Colombia’s current account deficit in 2021 and the years thereafter. 
• That said, Fitch Solutions expects that the country's current account shortfalls will persist over the coming years amid a subdued outlook for oil production and prices, combined with renewed demand for imports.
• It has revised its 2020 and 2021 current account deficit forecasts to 4.0% of GDP and 3.9% respectively, from 4.4% and 4.0% previously, as remittance inflows have surprised to the upside in recent months. 

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The outlook for the global economy is improving despite a second wave of coronavirus outbreaks in many countries as vaccines emerge and a Chinese-led recovery takes hold, the OECD said on Tuesday.
• The global economy will grow 4.2% next year and ease to 3.7% in 2022, after shrinking 4.2% this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest Economic Outlook.
• After the second wave of infections hit Europe and the United States, the Paris-based policy forum trimmed its forecasts from September, when it expected a global contraction of 4.5% before a 5% recovery in 2021. It did not have a 2022 forecast at the time.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices were broadly steady on Tuesday as investors awaited direction from OPEC and its allies after the producers postponed a formal meeting to decide whether to lift output from January.
• Brent crude was down 1 cent at $47.87 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was down 9 cents at $45.25.
• Both contracts have surged around 27% in November, pushed up by hopes that COVID-19 vaccines would boost the global economy and fuel demand, and aided by expectations that oil producers would keep a tight rein on output amid a new wave of the virus.

(Source: Reuters)

• According to the BOJ, the financial sector has generally remained well-capitalized despite the on-going impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its dampening effect on the earning capacity of financial institutions.
• Entities continue to hold capital positions well in excess of the prudential minimum and there has been a broad shift away from risky investments towards less risky assets.
• Risk exposure indicators for deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) and Security Dealers (SDs) showed mixed results. In addition to a deterioration in foreign exchange risk across both sectors, there was some weakening in the household credit risk measure for the DTIs. There was, however, an improvement in interest rate risk exposure of the sector.
• Composite indicators of macro-financial conditions deteriorated. However, the micro-based measure of financial stability was broadly stable and continued to reflect a healthy banking system.

(Source: BOJ)

• Some hotels in Jamaica are reporting between 60-90% occupancy through a combination of local and international guests and this is fueling optimism for a healthy 2020-winter tourism season Minister of Tourism, Hon. Edmund Bartlett has said.
• He also noted that several hotels are redefining the meaning of luxury to accommodate more private experiences, including Eclipse at Half Moon.
• There are also other developments at Chukka Cove in Ocho Rios, the additional expansion of high-end hotels along the Elegant Corridor in Montego Bay, and other planned development expansion in Trelawny and St. Ann.
• Meanwhile, noting that “Jamaica is a destination that always seeks to punch above its weight, Nicola Madden Greig, Chair, JAPEX Organizing Committee and Past President of the Jamaica Hotel & Tourist Association (JHTA) said that despite COVID-19 Jamaica is not only poised “to regain market share and survive but also, to thrive.”

(Source: JIS News)

• Nicaragua will run wide current account surpluses in 2020 and 2021, as strong exports and remittance inflows outweigh a recovery of imports in the months ahead.
• Fitch Solutions forecasts Nicaragua’s current account surplus will widen to 10.3% of GDP in 2020, from 6.0% in 2019, before narrowing somewhat to 6.8% in 2021 as the global economy recovers from COVID-19.
• While wide surpluses and rebounding foreign reserves will support Nicaragua’s external account stability, US sanctions and domestic political unrest pose an ongoing risk to this outlook.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• Real GDP in Costa Rica will significantly contract through the end of 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic before a sluggish recovery begins in 2021, supported by rebounding domestic commercial activity and tourism inflows.
• The likelihood of fiscal austerity in the coming years will limit public expenditures, push unemployment higher, and restrict private consumption, capping the country’s longer-term upside.
• Fitch Solutions revised its 2020 and 2021 real GDP growth forecasts to -5.3% and 3.0% y-o-y, from -4.1% and 3.1% previously, as the COVID-19 pandemic will have a more severe impact on short-term growth than previously expected.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The dollar edged up on Tuesday and the yen stayed low, as investors remained optimistic about progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine, although the moves were more tempered than in the previous session.
• U.S drugmaker Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech SE said on Monday a large-scale clinical trial showed their vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 - news that lifted global markets with a wave of risk appetite, which subsided somewhat overnight before re-igniting on Tuesday.
• The dollar rose after the announcement. Although the dollar is a safe-haven, and so typically falls on positive news, analysts said the move was caused by investors quitting long positions in other major safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

(Source: Reuters)

• France’s unemployment rate rose to its highest level in two years in the third quarter, the INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) statistics office said on Tuesday, as the euro zone’s second-biggest economy grapples with the fallout from the COVID-19 crisis.
• INSEE said the jobless rate jumped to 9.0% from 7.1% in the second quarter, its highest level since the third quarter of 2018.
• INSEE said that marked the single biggest quarterly increase on record going back to 1975, but it was largely because the rate had been skewed in the previous two quarters because people were not able to look for work due to a mid-March to mid-May coronavirus lockdown.

(Source: Reuters)