• Moody's Investors Services believes the Government has so far shown effective policymaking by restructuring Petrotrin. The international credit rating agency posited that had the Government not done so, it could have devolved into a potentially hazardous political and fiscal situation.
• The Trinidadian government is now accepting bids for the Petrotrin Pointe-a-Pierre refinery, and the rating agency believes that if the new owner improves the refinery's operations, this would have a positive short-term impact on economic growth and potentially positive effect over the longer term.
• Moody's also expects that over the next two years, the non-energy sector will return to growth and that gas output will stabilize along with an increase in oil production.
• Nevertheless, although it expected that the economy will return to growth, the country's prospects for economic diversification away from hydrocarbons remain limited because of ‘deep-seated institutional shortcomings and short-term policy decisions’.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)

• Group of Seven finance chiefs acknowledged gathering threats to the global economy and gave a cautious pledge to provide fiscal support if those dangers materialize.
• After a two-day meeting in Chantilly, France, finance ministers and central bankers declared risks for the global economy remain “tilted to the downside,” even if growth is stabilizing and there should be a moderate pickup next year. That’s a later timeline for improvement than envisioned at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka last month.
• Fiscal policy should be flexible and growth-friendly while rebuilding buffers where needed,” according to a summary of the talks prepared by the French G-7 presidency. “Monetary policy will continue to support economic activity while remaining mindful of financial stability and recognizing that monetary policy alone cannot address all economic challenges.”

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Oil initially rose more than 1% on Thursday after Iran said it had seized a foreign tanker in the Gulf, but prices gradually lost their gains as it emerged that the vessel had only a small cargo and was detained on Sunday for fuel smuggling.
• Prices steadied by 1330 GMT with Brent crude LCOc1 futures up 1 cent at $63.67 a barrel, after hitting a session high of $64.46.
• West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures were down 7 cents at $56.71 after the U.S. benchmark hit a session high of $57.32.
• Iran said the vessel, which it did not identify, was smuggling fuel and had been carrying 1 million liters, or around 6,200 barrels, in the area of Larak Island and had 12 foreign crew 

(Source: Reuters)

• In the most recent financials published for Caribbean Cream Limited (KREMI), the company reported an overall decline in the net profit for the three-month period ended May 31, 2019. Net profit ended the period at $20.62Mn (EPS: $0.05) which was a 62.7% decline from the $55.37Mn (EPS: $0.15) reported in 2018.
• An increase in administrative, selling & distribution expenses and net finance costs, as well as a decline in overall income, were contributors to the deterioration in the net profit. Admin expenses increased to $106.59Mn, 19.6% higher than in 2018 and net finance costs increased to $6.06Mn (or by 79.2%). Revenues also declined to $135.62Mn (-7.8%).
• The stock has fallen 13.9% since the start of the calendar year. KREMI closed yesterday’s trading session at $5.01 and currently trades at a P/E of 41.9x earnings which is below the Junior Market Manufacturing sector average of 28.8x.

 (Source: Caribbean Cream Financials)

• Portland JSX reported a recovery in profit of US$94.79Mn (EPS: 0.03¢) for the three months ended May 31, 2019, relative to the US$ 500.94Mn (EPS: -0.16¢) loss in 2018.
• This improvement in the bottom line was driven mainly by the net fair gains on financial assets classified at fair value which amounted to $276.76Mn up from the $313.18Mn loss reported in 2018.
• The company also reduced operating expenses by 12.5% to $184.68Mn.
• The stock has risen 11.3% since the start of the calendar year, closing yesterday’s trading session at $8.35 per share. At its current price the stock now trades at a P/B of 0.81x which is below the Main Market Real Estate sector average of 1.89x.

(Portland JSX Financials)

• Fitch Solutions expect Antigua and Barbuda’s economic growth will moderate in 2019, as a hurricane recovery-driven construction boom slowly fades.
• That said, growth is expected to remain relatively strong, as activity in the tourism and construction sectors remain robust. Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2019 and 3.3% in 2020.
• Over the medium term, a slowing global economy and pressure on the government to rein in spending will provide headwinds to growth.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• On July 1, 2019, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Honduras. At the same time, the Board approved two-year arrangements under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and Standby Credit Facility (SCF) for Honduras;
• Macroeconomic conditions in Honduras remained stable in 2018. GDP growth slowed to 3.8% last year due to weaker terms of trade but remained close to potential, supported by private consumption amid strong growth in remittances.
• Inflation is stable around the center of the central bank´s 4±1 percent target band. Owing to lower coffee prices and higher oil prices. The current account widened to 4.3% of GDP but stayed close to its historical average. The financial system is stable, liquid, and well-capitalized, with NPLs at historic lows.
• In this context, while growth is projected to slow down to slightly less than 3.5% in 2019—mainly owing to still weak terms of trade—reforms in the electricity sector, improved governance, and the continued strengthening of the macroeconomic policy framework would secure debt sustainability and support a recovery in investment; and positive confidence effects would foster GDP growth.

 (Source: IMF)

• The perennial problem that is the U.S. debt limit is oozing its way back onto the agenda.
• Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that under one of the Treasury Department’s scenarios, the country will be at risk of defaulting on payment obligations in early September.
• With Congress due to start its recess on July 26 and not return until mid-September, there is some pressure to agree on a way forward in the coming weeks.
• Mnuchin is in Paris for a meeting of G-7 finance chiefs where the French are busy pushing for agreement on a digital tax on tech giant profits. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The pound fell to the lowest since 2017 as the market once again reckoned with no-deal Brexit risk after the contenders to be U.K. prime minister toughened their rhetoric.
• Sterling hit its weakest level in more than two years versus the dollar and a six-month low against the euro, as Brexit negotiations appeared to turn more hostile.
• Both leadership contenders Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have said the so-called backstop plan to avoid a hard border in Ireland, considered essential by Brussels, would need to be scrapped.
• The U.K. currency extended its slide after Sky News reported that Johnson’s team was considering sending lawmakers home for up to two weeks in October to prevent them from blocking a no-deal Brexit.
• After a strong start to the year, the pound is the worst performer in the Group-of-10 in recent months and is at the lowest ever for this time of year.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• Bank of Jamaica intervened in the foreign exchange market yesterday 11 July 2019, with an offer of US$30Mn sold to authorized dealers and large cambios by means of Bank of Jamaica’s Foreign Exchange Intervention and Trading Tool (B-FXITT).
• This intervention is intended to address temporary demand and supply imbalances in the market.

(Source: Bank of Jamaica)