• World trade shrank by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and is likely to grow by 2.6% this year, below a previous forecast of 3.7%, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said.
• The WTO further highlighted that trade had been weighed down by new tariffs and retaliatory measures, weaker economic growth, volatility in financial markets and tighter monetary conditions in developed countries.
• WTO forecasted in September that 2018 growth would be 3.9%, down from 4.6% in 2017.

 (Source: Reuters)

• The global economy is "highly likely" to go into a recession if the U.S. and China are unable to reach a trade deal within three months, said Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi.
• He further noted that business sentiment has been hurt by the trade war and companies are now "on edge".
• The economist also said the probability of a no-deal Brexit is "uncomfortably high" and that's a risk that could send Europe into a recession.

 (Source: CNBC)

• For the year ended December 31, 2018, 1834 Investments Limited reported an unaudited net loss of $56.96Mn (EPS: -0.049), representing a 166.8% decline over the prior year.
• This loss was partly attributable to a 46.0% decrease in revenues and a 66.9% increase in costs.
• The stock price has fallen 5.17% since the start of the calendar year, closing yesterday’s trading session at $1.10. At this price, the stock is currently trading at a P/B of 0.87x earnings which is below the Main Market Communications sector average of 0.94x.

(Source: JSE)

• The House of Representatives on Tuesday, March 26 approved the Third Supplementary Estimates for the 2018/19 fiscal year, which reflect total government expenditure of $802.6Bn.
• The figures indicate no deviation between the expenditure out-turns projected in the Second 2018/19 Supplementary Estimates, which were approved in January 2019.
• Minister of Finance, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke, who tabled the document on March 20, explained that the Third Supplementary Estimates represent a reallocation of programmed expenditure from areas where provisions have been made and those monies have not yet been spent, with five days to go before the 2018/19 fiscal year ends.

 (Source: JIS)

• According to Fitch Trinidad & Tobago’s (T&T) economy will continue its modest recovery over the coming quarters, supported by rising natural gas production. However, non-energy sector growth will remain tepid, restricted by an overvalued exchange rate and private firms’ poor access to credit.
• The external accounts will remain weak over the coming quarters, as a real interest rate disadvantage vis-a-vis the US drives capital outflows. As a result, the pegged exchange rate will remain under pressure.
• The fiscal deficit will most likely narrow in light of rebounding energy sector revenues. However, public financing needs will continue to strain the domestic financial system.
• A competitive election in 2020 and the political and economic crisis in Venezuela will exacerbate political gridlock in 2019. T&T’s relations with the US will be increasingly strained over the Venezuela crisis and Chinese investment.

(Source: Fitch)

• IN view of the projected transformation, Guyana is preparing its maritime sector by revising and updating local laws and regulations to reflect the current realities of the emerging oil-and-gas sector.
• “We must continue to employ good governance in the oil-and-gas sector through focused attention directed towards environmental concerns and protection of marine life,” said Public Infrastructure Minister, David Patterson.
• Oil and gas will be the primary engine of growth of the country for the next two decades. This has engendered an entirely new set of demands on maritime resources.
• The current maritime legal and regulatory framework will have to be significantly upgraded and adapted to meet the new demands of the oil-and-gas industry.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• It’s March 29 and the U.K. is not leaving the EU today, despite years of promises.
• When the U.K. is actually going to leave is still a matter to be decided, with Prime Minister Theresa May putting her already a twice-rejected deal to another vote in Parliament later today.
• With only hours to go, it seems it will once again flop as Northern Ireland’s DUP Party maintains its opposition to the agreement.
• If so, lawmakers have until April 12 to decide on a way forward or leave without a deal on that date.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• U.S Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a tweet on Friday that he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had concluded "constructive" trade talks in Beijing.
• Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were in the Chinese capital for the first face-to-face meetings between the two sides in weeks after missing an initial end-of-March goal for a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign a pact.
• On Thursday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Beijing will sharply expand market access for foreign banks and securities and insurance companies, adding to speculation that China may soon announce new rules to allow foreign financial firms to increase their presence at home.
• White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the United States may drop some tariffs if a trade deal is reached while keeping others in place to ensure Beijing's compliance.

(Source: CNBC)

• Brexit, the U.S.-China dispute, and the possibility of U.S. auto tariffs mean the world economy faces substantial threats to free trade.
• Running the numbers on a unique data set from the OECD, Bloomberg Economics calculates that some 2.3% of global gross domestic product is tied to trade flows that are at risk from greater protectionism.
• Within that, the U.K., China and Germany are the major economies that face the biggest risks.

(Source: Bloomberg)

• The Bank of Jamaica announced its decision to lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The reduction will take effect on March 28, 2019.
• The decision to lower the policy rate is aimed at supporting inflation reaching the target of (4.0% to 6.0%) by December 2020.
• The rate reduction is intended to stimulate faster expansion in private sector credit which should lead to higher economic activity, consistent with the inflation target.

(Source: BOJ Press Release)