- Crime will be the main test of the government's record over the coming year, following its decision to end the state of emergency. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar told parliament on 17 September that the measure would not be extended again. It had been in force since 3 March and gave the authorities extraordinary powers, including detention without charge.
- The government faced growing criticism over mass arrests and the suspension of civil liberties. Murders fell by around 42% in 2025, and the 265 homicides recorded between January and September 2026 were 3.6% below the same period a year earlier. However, emergency measures tend to displace criminal activity instead of reducing it permanently. The government declared the latest state of emergency only a month after the previous one expired, citing an increase in violent crime that included mass shootings and gang reprisal attacks.
- BMI analyst reasons that the government will find it difficult to replace emergency powers with permanent legislation. Persad-Bissessar has said the government will seek a permanent legal framework for targeted operations against gangs, illegal weapons and the networks that fund them, with judicial oversight and parliamentary accountability. Legislation that suspends constitutional rights requires a three-fifths majority in both houses, which the government does not hold in the Senate.
- The Zones of Special Operations bill was defeated there on 27 January, when it received 15 of the 19 votes required, with eight of the nine independent senators and all six opposition senators voting against. The government said in September that it will return the bill to parliament, where it will again need the support of at least four independent senators. In the meantime, BMI expects it to rely on administrative measures, including the 30 joint army and police posts announced in August, three of which were operating by mid-September. The opposition People's National Movement (PNM) has questioned the legality of these posts, and security policy will remain a source of conflict between the two parties.
- A sustained rise in crime would have political and economic costs. The government has made crime reduction a central part of its economic agenda, as high levels of violence deter investment and weigh on business confidence. The homicide rate was 45.7 per 100,000 in 2024, among the highest in the region. Tourist arrivals fell in the first half of 2026 for the first time since the pandemic, partly because of regional insecurity. A reversal of the gains made in 2025 would weaken the government's main achievement since taking office and would strengthen the opposition's argument that the improvement depended on emergency powers.
- That said, BMI expects the broader political environment to remain stable. The United National Congress (UNC) holds 26 of 41 seats in the House of Representatives, compared with 13 for the PNM, and the opposition weakened further when the Tobago People's Party won all 15 seats in the Tobago House of Assembly in January 2026. The next general election is not due until 2030. The main pressures on the government will come from the economy and public finances. Real GDP growth of just 0.3% is forecasted in 2026, and unemployment rose to 5.4% in Q1 2026 from 4.9% a year earlier. Meanwhile, the FY2026/27 budget has limited room for new spending, given wage settlements already agreed with public sector workers.
(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions company)