• The annual inflation rate in the Dominican Republic rose to 5.67% in June 2026 from 5.35% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since March 2023.
• The strongest price pressures were recorded in transport (8.37%), restaurants and hotels (8.03%), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.01%). Education prices also rose at a faster pace than the overall inflation rate, increasing 6.64%. Additionally, Costs increased for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (5.47%), healthcare (4.94%), housing (2.47%), furniture and household equipment (2.17%), and recreation and culture (2.20%). Meanwhile, prices continued to decline for clothing and footwear (-1.15%) and communications (-0.80%).
• On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.51% in June, following a 0.31% increase in May.
• At its meeting on 30 June, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 5.25% for the eighth consecutive meeting, keeping borrowing costs among the highest in Central America and the Caribbean.
• While most of its panellists continue to expect the Bank to begin lowering rates before the end of 2026 as inflation gradually moderates, June's stronger-than-expected inflation reading has clouded the outlook. As a result, a sizeable minority of analysts now expect the policy rate to remain at or above its current level through December, supported by resilient economic growth, persistent inflationary pressures and the expected trajectory of U.S. Federal Reserve policy.
• Looking ahead, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, adverse weather linked to a severe El Niño event could create further upside surprises in inflation that could delay the start of monetary easing and keep the BCRD in a restrictive stance for longer.

(Sources: Trading Economics & NCBCM Research)

• Tropical Battery's Amazon launch has established an early U.S. market presence, with products reaching customers in more than 39 states, demonstrating stronger-than-expected geographic penetration and validating the Company's cross-border e-commerce strategy.
• While revenues remain immaterial at this stage, the launch confirms the Company's ability to generate U.S. dollar earnings directly from Jamaica through Amazon's fulfilment network, creating a scalable platform for future export growth without the need for a physical U.S. presence.
• The first product, DNI windshield washer fluid, was strategically selected as a high-demand consumable to establish the Company's Amazon operations and fulfilment capabilities. The company also plans to expand its product portfolio to 10 Amazon listings within the next 12 months, including a winter-grade windshield washer fluid later this year.
• The initiative supports Tropical Battery's strategy to diversify revenue streams, expand internationally, and increase foreign exchange earnings. While this represents a step in the right direction for the Company, several challenges remain, including tight margins, intense price competition, supply chain reliability, brand development, and foreign-currency reporting. Nonetheless, management remains confident that the platform offers significant long-term growth potential.
• Since the start of the year, Tropical’s stock price has declined by 13.2% to $1.38 on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. At this level, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.9x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 13.4x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The current account balance is expected to equal -5.4% of GDP in 2026, reflecting a severely deteriorated trade balance from both Hurricane Melissa-related impacts and the rising cost of imported oil, following the onset of the US-Iran conflict.
• Hurricane Melissa severely impacted Jamaica's key exporting sectors, including agriculture, mining, fishing and tourism. Consequently, BMI expects a contraction in exports, with tourism-related service exports suffering from sectoral disruptions and goods exports declining due to reduced bauxite production and sales, a pattern previously observed after Hurricane Beryl.
• These trends are already evident: total bauxite exports fell by 37.9% in November 2025 and 20.4% in December, while tourist stopover arrivals fell by 40.9% in Q4 2025 to end the year and slid further to start 2026
• The recovery and rebuilding process will necessitate increased imports of construction materials, machinery, fuel, food and medical supplies, expanding the import bill. Additionally, strengthening import demand and significant spikes in crude prices from the US-Iran conflict are expected to push the deficit even wider, with lingering geopolitical tensions presenting a near-term downside risk to Jamaica's current account outlook.
• Against this background, BMI projects that the current account will run deficits in the near and medium term as exports decline and imports rise.
• That said, the country’s current account position will receive support from strong remittance inflows, as the diaspora community responds to the crisis by increasing financial transfers. During the pandemic, remittances grew from 15.3% of GDP in 2019 to 24.4% in 2021, and BMI projects similar strength in 2026, with remittances growing year-over-year in January (5.0%) and February (3.4%), which will support Jamaica's external accounts. Furthermore, an influx of international aid will provide additional support to the current account balance.
• The external sector presents limited downside risk to macroeconomic stability, underpinned by a relatively favourable external debt profile, stable debt composition and robust reserve levels. Remittances and tourism receipts have provided the central bank with substantial reserves, accumulated through surrender requirements, which reached US$6.5Bn in April 2026, equivalent to an estimated six months of import cover. However, estimated import cover has fallen sharply in recent months, from 8.3 months in February 2026 to 6.0 months in April, driven by a rising monthly import bill, although it still exceeds recommended thresholds. Nonetheless, these reserves will serve as a critical buffer during Jamaica's post-Hurricane Melissa recovery, enabling the central bank to support the local currency while ensuring sufficient foreign exchange availability to finance imports.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)