• The current account balance is expected to equal -5.4% of GDP in 2026, reflecting a severely deteriorated trade balance from both Hurricane Melissa-related impacts and the rising cost of imported oil, following the onset of the US-Iran conflict.
• Hurricane Melissa severely impacted Jamaica's key exporting sectors, including agriculture, mining, fishing and tourism. Consequently, BMI expects a contraction in exports, with tourism-related service exports suffering from sectoral disruptions and goods exports declining due to reduced bauxite production and sales, a pattern previously observed after Hurricane Beryl.
• These trends are already evident: total bauxite exports fell by 37.9% in November 2025 and 20.4% in December, while tourist stopover arrivals fell by 40.9% in Q4 2025 to end the year and slid further to start 2026
• The recovery and rebuilding process will necessitate increased imports of construction materials, machinery, fuel, food and medical supplies, expanding the import bill. Additionally, strengthening import demand and significant spikes in crude prices from the US-Iran conflict are expected to push the deficit even wider, with lingering geopolitical tensions presenting a near-term downside risk to Jamaica's current account outlook.
• Against this background, BMI projects that the current account will run deficits in the near and medium term as exports decline and imports rise.
• That said, the country’s current account position will receive support from strong remittance inflows, as the diaspora community responds to the crisis by increasing financial transfers. During the pandemic, remittances grew from 15.3% of GDP in 2019 to 24.4% in 2021, and BMI projects similar strength in 2026, with remittances growing year-over-year in January (5.0%) and February (3.4%), which will support Jamaica's external accounts. Furthermore, an influx of international aid will provide additional support to the current account balance.
• The external sector presents limited downside risk to macroeconomic stability, underpinned by a relatively favourable external debt profile, stable debt composition and robust reserve levels. Remittances and tourism receipts have provided the central bank with substantial reserves, accumulated through surrender requirements, which reached US$6.5Bn in April 2026, equivalent to an estimated six months of import cover. However, estimated import cover has fallen sharply in recent months, from 8.3 months in February 2026 to 6.0 months in April, driven by a rising monthly import bill, although it still exceeds recommended thresholds. Nonetheless, these reserves will serve as a critical buffer during Jamaica's post-Hurricane Melissa recovery, enabling the central bank to support the local currency while ensuring sufficient foreign exchange availability to finance imports.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Guyana is among a group of oil-exporting countries benefiting from higher global crude prices amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Clyde Russell, Asia Commodities and Energy columnist at Reuters.
• Russell, noted that some exporting nations are benefiting from higher prices, noting that “there are countries where higher prices for crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are providing huge benefits that, so far, outweigh the cost of rising inflation.”
• As beneficiaries, Russell listed Guyana alongside Angola, Gabon, Argentina, Nigeria, Algeria, and Malaysia. These countries are positioned as net energy exporters or self-sufficient in refined fuels, allowing them to capture stronger revenues in the current price environment.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already removed an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of oil from global markets, with Guyana’s crude identified as a more stable supply source as countries adjust to reduced tanker traffic and ongoing security risks in the Middle East.
• Guyana’s monthly output was 914,000 barrels per day (b/d) in March 2026. When the fifth project, Uaru, comes on stream later this year, production is expected to surpass one million b/d. However, despite being a major crude oil exporter, Guyana still relies on imported refined fuels, and the closure of the Strait has contributed to increased gasoline prices

(Source: OilNow Guyana)

• The CEO of Saudi Arabia's state oil giant and the world’s single largest crude oil exporter, Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, is warning that the energy sector will take time to recover from the Iran war's impact on supply, as oil output was slashed due to the ongoing disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Nasser said on an earnings call Monday that the global energy market has lost about 1 billion barrels of oil supply during the crisis, though efforts to reroute shipments to avoid using the Strait of Hormuz and releases from countries' strategic petroleum reserves have eased some of the supply issues.
• The impact of the Iran ⁠war, including the effective closure of the strait, has already been called the biggest disruption to the energy ​market in history. The market is losing around 100 million barrels of oil a week, Nasser said, adding that two ​to five vessels are crossing the strait daily versus around 70 in normal times. If the disruption continues for several more weeks, Aramco thinks that oil markets may not normalise until 2027.
• The disruption has choked off tanker traffic and sent energy prices ​surging, stoking fears of spiralling inflation and an economic downturn. The conflict prompted Aramco to ramp up the use of its pipeline that transits the Arabian Peninsula from east to west and negates the need for oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply passed through before the war began.
• "Our East-West pipeline, which reached its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels of oil per day, has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz," Nasser said
• Of the 7 million barrels per day the pipeline handles, about 2 million go to oil refineries located on Saudi Arabia's western coast, while the remaining 5 million barrels per day are available for exports. Nasser said that Aramco is considering ways to expand its export capacity at Yanbu, the terminal on the Red Sea that serves as the pipeline's destination.
• Saudi Arabia cut oil output by 2 million barrels per day after Iran threatened shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively closed the vital choke point. Overall, the supply shock is draining inventories across all markets, with some regions and countries, especially in Asia, already under severe stress to procure oil supply.
• The 1-billion-barrel loss, and counting, from global supply will reverberate through the oil market for months to come, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens unconditionally to free tanker traffic soon. This prospect, however, appeared distant as at early on Monday, as U.S. President Donald Trump rejected the Iranian response to a U.S.-drafted peace proposal.

(Sources: Reuters, Fox Business and OilPrice.com)