Rising Oil Exports To Underpin Strong Current Account Surplus In Guyana

• With stronger-than-expected oil exports thus far this year, Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for Guyana's current account surplus in 2024 from 26.5% of GDP to 30.4%. Further, it is expected that a ramping up of oil production over the coming years will sustain a wide current account surplus, averaging 28.1% of GDP over 2025-2028.
• Notably, Fitch’s Oil & Gas team's forecast that oil production will double from 595,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 to 1,190,000b/d in 2028 as new offshore platforms come online will drive strong growth in oil exports over the coming years.
• That said, it is projected that Guyana’s financial account will swing into a deficit as oil companies recover costs, but robust foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and rising international reserves should contain overall risks to Guyana’s external accounts.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)