Sustainable Fiscal Trajectory to Lower Jamaica’s Public Debt Further

  • Fitch Solutions anticipates that Jamaica’s fiscal trajectory will remain sustainable in FY2025/26 (FY: April–March) and beyond. For FY2025/26, the agency anticipates that total revenues and expenditures will equal 32.7% of GDP, resulting in a virtually balanced budget.
  • A nearly balanced budget in FY2026/27 is also anticipated, with total revenue and expenditure at 31.2% and 31.7% of GDP. Furthermore, the primary balance (expenditures less interest payments) is set to come in at a healthy 5.3% of GDP for FY2025/2026 and 3.5% for FY2026/2027.
  • Provisional estimates of government expenditure and revenue for the first three months of FY2025/2026 support this near-term view. Total expenditure for April–June 2025 was 6.5% less than the budgeted amount for this period, while total revenue aligned with the government’s budget estimates, with J$232.2Bn in total revenue collected.
  • While prevailing wisdom would suggest an uptick in government outlays in the months prior to a high-stakes general election, scheduled for September 3, the most recent central government operations data does not show such a trend. Instead, data show continued fiscal restraint, which will likely continue over the near and longer terms, due to broad political commitment to fiscal responsibility, underpinning our upbeat outlook for Jamaica’s public finances.
  • Overall, Jamaica’s sustainable fiscal path is supported by strong institutional and policy frameworks. Jamaica’s Fiscal Responsibility Law, established in 2010 and amended in 2014 following successful debt reduction efforts, has shaped the country’s fiscal policy and enabled successful debt reduction since its inception.
  • Jamaica has also reduced its overall debt-to-GDP ratio over the past 10 years, from 121.0% of GDP to under 70% by 2024. Furthermore, the debt-to-GDP ratio will likely meet the 60% of GDP goal by 2027, in line with projections from the IMF and Jamaica’s Independent Fiscal Commission (IFC).

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)