Jamaica's Economy Grew 5.1% For July to September 2025

• The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported that the Jamaican economy grew by 5.1% in the July to September quarter of this year, compared with the same period last year. This was the result of increases in the Goods Producing Industries of 10.9% and the Services Industries of 3.3%
• The economy’s performance reflected recovery from the negative impacts of Hurricane Beryl in July 2024, largely driven by increased activity in industries most affected, including Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Mining & Quarrying, Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management and Accommodation & Food Service Activities.
• The recovery in the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was further aided by favourable weather conditions during the period and ongoing efforts from both government and private sector entities to boost production capacity. Furthermore, Growth was recorded for all the Goods-Producing industries, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (20.9%), Mining & Quarrying (4.0%), Manufacturing (8.4%) and Construction (5.5%).
• The 3.3% expansion in the Services Industries resulted from increases across all Services industries, except for Public Administration & Defence, which declined by 0.7%. Improved performances was recorded in Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management (6.7%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (3.1%), Accommodation & Food Service Activities (6.8%), Transport & Storage (7.1%), Information & Communication (1.5%), Financial & Insurance Activities (5.3%), Real Estate & Business Activities (1.0%) and Education, Health & Other Services (2.5%).
• Real value added (seasonally adjusted) increased by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2025 when compared with the second quarter of 2025, marking the third consecutive quarterly growth for 2025. This performance was attributed to a 2.1% increase in the Goods-Producing Industries and a 0.8% increase in the Services Industries.
• Looking ahead, the catastrophic impact of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa on October 28, 2025, has vastly shifted the outlook of the economy. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has projected a severe economic contraction of 11.0% to 13.0% for the October–December 2025 quarter, marking the country's worst quarterly performance since the onset of the 2020 pandemic.
• This unprecedented shock, which caused physical damage estimated at US$8.8Bn (approximately 41% of 2024 GDP), has effectively wiped out the 5.1% growth achieved in the third quarter and is expected to result in a full fiscal year decline of 3.0% to 6.0%. With key sectors like Agriculture and Tourism facing massive infrastructure losses and a US Level-3 travel advisory further dampening visitor arrivals, the economy is not forecast to return to positive growth until the last quarter of 2026.

(Sources: STATIN, PIOJ & NCBCM Research)