T&T’s State of Emergency Extended as Violent Crime Falls in 2025

On March 2, 2026, the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (GoTT) extended the country's state of emergency (SoE) for three months, effective March 3, with the previous SoE expiring on January 31. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar stated that the extension responded to reports of threats against law enforcement, alongside spikes in gang-related activity and mass shootings driven primarily by organised crime, with over 60 killings recorded this year so far.
The state of emergency grants the government additional policing powers, including the arrest of individuals on 'suspicion of criminal activities' and increased authority to enter and search public and private areas alongside the suspension of certain civil liberties, including access to bail.
The extension follows a significant legislative defeat for the UNC-led government in January, when the Senate failed to pass the Zones of Special Operations (ZOSO) Bill, which would have given the prime minister authority to designate high-crime areas as special security zones. The bill required a three-fifths majority (given its suspension of certain rights) but received only 15 votes in favour with 14 against (including eight of nine independent senators) and one abstention.

Of note, crime fell precipitously in 2025; however, the sustainability of such reductions remains tenuous. The extension of Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T’s) SoE follows a noticeable and highly touted drop in crime in 2025, which saw the murder rate fall from 45.7 murders per 100,000 people in 2024 to 27.0 in 2025. The Trinidad and Tobago Police Service (TTPS) reported that total murders on the island fell from 626 in 2024 to 369 in 2025, a 42.0% reduction, with gang-related murders also declining. Furthermore, the TTPS reports that serious crimes dropped by 8.0%, alongside reductions in violent crimes (-15.0%) and autos theft (-21.0%).
This reduction in crime is largely attributed to the country's ongoing SoEs. The country has been under a state of emergency for roughly 10 of the last 14 months. However, BMI analysts noted previously in regard to other Caribbean markets using SoEs to combat persistent criminality, that the ability to sustain crime reductions through these measures is not guaranteed, instead it is displacing crime. The need to extend the SoE for an additional three months suggests that sustained crime reduction has yet to be achieved, especially given the reported escalation crime in February 2026 following the expiration of the previous state of emergency.
That said, the reduction in crime in 2025 is a welcome development for a country long plagued by violent organized crime and the inflow of US-made weapons and represents a potential boost to the operating environment, if progress can be sustained. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) released a report in 2024 highlighting the costs of crime and violence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), quantifying both the direct and indirect costs of crime by region and country.
The report found that direct costs of crime, as a percentage of GDP, averaged 3.44% for Latin America and the Caribbean, and 4.97% for Trinidad and Tobago in 2022, the second highest in the region behind Jamaica. With additional indirect costs affecting tourism (a key area of economic diversification for Trinidad and Tobago), productivity and migration, sustaining 2025's crime reduction would meaningfully improve the country's operating environment, economy, and investment profile.
However, with crime reportedly on the rise in the month without a state of emergency, BMI analysts remain relatively downbeat about the prospect of sustained crime reduction. Furthermore, the trade-off between the suspension of constitutional rights and reduced crime is a recipe for increased social pressures in the medium term.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)