Panama Canal Traffic is Boosted Nearly 10.0% as a Result of the Crisis in the Middle East

• The Middle East crisis has driven a roughly 10.0% increase in daily ship transits through the Panama Canal above budgeted levels. Daily crossings totalled between 38 and 41 daily crossings over the past two weeks, compared to the planned 34 to 36, as vessels seek a safer and more cost-efficient alternative to disrupted Middle Eastern shipping routes.
• Deputy Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta highlighted the Canal's appeal in the current environment. He noted that it offers a safe, short route that provides better economies of scale at elevated fuel prices, reinforcing Panama's strategic value as a global maritime chokepoint during periods of geopolitical instability.
• The Liquefied Natural Gas segment, which pays the second-highest toll on the Canal after container ships in the Neopanamax locks, is showing signs of meaningful recovery following a post-Ukraine war decline. New reservations expected for April, represent a positive and timely revenue uplift for Canal finances.
• The Canal is currently running 10% above budget in both tonnage and revenue, though authorities noted it will be necessary to wait until the end of the fiscal year to fully measure the impact. For context, fiscal year 2025 Canal revenues reached US$5.71Bn, a 14.4% increase, with total transits of 13,404.
• For the Panamanian sovereign, this development is a meaningful near-term credit positive. Canal toll revenues are a critical pillar of government finances and fiscal consolidation efforts. Sustained above-budget traffic, if maintained through the second and third quarters of 2026, could provide meaningful relief to Panama's elevated fiscal deficit and partially offset the sovereign's ongoing refinancing pressures.

(Source: Newsroom Panama & NCBCM Research)