World Bank Forecasts 2027 Economic Breakout for T&T

• T&T is preparing for a major economic shift between 2026 and 2027. While the economy is expected to grow by only 0.7 per cent in 2026, the World Bank forecasts a strong comeback in 2027, with a real GDP growth rate of 3.2 per cent. This jump marks a significant recovery after a few years of slower movement, including an estimated 0.8 per cent in 2025 and a 2.5 per cent peak in 2024.
• While the 2027 outlook improves, T&T’s growth remains relatively conservative within the region, significantly trailing Guyana, which continues to lead the region with massive double-digit projections of 16.3 per cent and 23.5 per cent for those same years. Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. By comparison, Trinidad and Tobago, another hydrocarbon producer, benefits intermittently from gas-related activity; however, it has a more mature production profile, without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana.
• In the Caribbean, the oil-driven expansion of Guyana, and soon Suriname, and to a lesser degree Trinidad and Tobago, is widening divergence relative to economies that depend heavily on tourism. Compared to other tourism-dependent or service-based economies, T&T’s 3.2 per cent forecast for 2027 places it ahead of Barbados (3.0 per cent) and The Bahamas (1.9 per cent) for that year. However, in the near-term Trinidad is expected to underperform several regional peers, with St Vincent and the Grenadines (3.0%) and Grenada (3.1%) projected to grow faster than T&T’s 0.7% in 2026.
• Across Latin America and the Caribbean, growth remains constrained, with regional GDP projected at 2.1% in 2026 (down from 2.4% in 2025), leaving the region among the slowest-growing globally, with GDP per capita barely increasing and income gains remaining essentially flat.
• According to the World Bank, the lack of improvement comes with downward revisions in some country projections and reflects a familiar mix of demand: private consumption remains the main driver, while investment stays subdued amid elevated global and domestic uncertainty and still restrictive real (inflation-adjusted) financing conditions.
• The bank further noted that growth and quality job creation in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remain subdued amid a challenging global environment. Inflation continues to decline, but monetary easing has proceeded more slowly than anticipated, non-energy commodity prices are softening, and persistent fiscal deficits continue to constrain needed investment. In addition, the rapid evolution of the global trade regime, together with heightened volatility in energy markets linked to the recent conflict in the Middle East, creates high levels of uncertainty around investment, inflation, and monetary policy, undermining medium-term growth prospects.

(Sources: World Bank and Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)