Jamaican Gov’t May Consider Movement Restrictions Amid Fuel Crisis

• Jamaica’s Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz is warning Jamaicans to prepare for fuel price increases and possible movement-reduction measures as rising global oil prices place growing pressure on the Government of Jamaica.
• Vaz said the Government is now exploring options to encourage conservation, including a potential return to hybrid work-from-home arrangements similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. No decision has yet been made, and the matter is expected to go before the Cabinet of Jamaica.
• The discussion comes as state-owned refinery Petrojam absorbed approximately J$1.3 billion in oil price hikes that were not passed on to consumers in the last four weeks. If the price pressures persist up to June 2026, it would cost the government J$11.8 billion to absorb the increases.
• Vaz characterised the situation as increasingly unsustainable, cautioning that Jamaicans should brace for further price increases. While Petrojam currently caps weekly fuel price adjustments at a maximum movement per litre to cushion consumers from sharp fluctuations, he indicated that such constraints may no longer be viable amid prevailing global conditions.
• Vaz noted that between March 12 and April 8, transport fuel prices increased by an average of $49.20 per litre. Of that amount, only $18 was passed on to consumers because of the cap, leaving Petrojam to absorb the remainder.
• He also suggested that policy changes aimed at reducing fuel consumption may be necessary. Despite rising costs, Vaz stressed that Jamaica’s fuel supply remains secure.
• Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran–U.S. conflict and the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, the global oil market outlook has shifted abruptly from expectations of surplus conditions to what is now widely viewed as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history. This is being transmitted to domestic fuel prices and is emerging as a key near-term upside risk to consumer prices via the Transport Division, given its high sensitivity to energy costs.
• Furthermore, with the economy already subdued, any additional movement restrictions could further dampen economic activity, particularly by constraining key sectors such as tourism, retail, and informal trade that are vital to day-to-day commercial flows

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly & NCBCM Research)