First 2026 Data from JTB Shows Extent of Tourism Hit After Hurricane Melissa

  • The Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) has released its first set of tourism data for 2026, confirming a sharp contraction in visitor arrivals in the aftermath of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa.
  • Stopover arrivals declined steeply at the start of the year, falling 35.5% in January and 27.1% in February relative to the previous corresponding months in 2025. This resulted in a 31.4% year-to-date (YTD) contraction, with total visitors dropping to 321,395 compared with 468,235 in the same period of 2025, highlighting the severity of the post-disaster demand shock.
  • The downturn was broad-based across Jamaica’s main source markets, led by a 37.5% decline in United States (U.S.) arrivals, alongside declines from Canada (-29.6%) and Europe (-14.6%). In contrast, smaller but resilient gains from Latin America (+5.7%) and Asia (+6.9%) offered only marginal support, highlighting early signs of diversification despite the broader downturn.
  • Despite reduced volumes, the structure of the market share remains largely unchanged, with the U.S. accounting for 60.5% of stopover visitors, followed by Canada (19.0%) and the United Kingdom (9.1%). This mix reinforces Jamaica’s continued reliance on North American travel demand to anchor the recovery and the tourism industry.
  • Cruise travel also declined 5.9% YTD January-February to 161,157 arrivals, reflecting an 8.9% and 2.7% decline in January and February, respectively. Encouragingly, all of Jamaica’s cruise ports and airports are now operational, with the island’s tourism hubs fully functioning, including Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, and Kingston, signalling improving supply-side conditions.
  • The latest data came as no surprise given that the tourism shock had already contributed to a 7.1% contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. Within the Services Industry, Accommodation and Food Services plunged 31.0%, as hotel closures in the western parishes coincided with a 43.0% decline in foreign arrivals to the island, while Transport and Storage declined by 7.5%, reflecting reduced airport activity and lower tourism-related travel.
  • Furthermore, according to Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett, Jamaica recorded over one million tourist arrivals in Q1 2026[1]. This represented a decline of roughly 18.0% year-over-year; however, the country generated approximately $956Mn in tourism receipts, suggesting some resilience in visitor spending despite lower volumes.
  • That said, Jamaica Carnival 2026 is anticipated to contribute positively to the tourism numbers for April, providing a much needed tailwind to the otherwise subdued YTD performance. Of note, the 2025 staging of the event generated a J$7.7Bn in direct expenditure, while producing an overall J$165.7Bn boost to the local economy.
  • Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects a gradual recovery in 2026, with GDP growth expected in the 1.0%–3.0% range for fiscal year 2026/27 as reconstruction progresses and tourism capacity is restored. However, the outlook remains subject to downside risks, including elevated global commodity prices and the pace of rebuilding in key resort areas, which will ultimately impact how quickly visitor flows normalise.

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1This announcement was made by the Minster at the diaspora reception held at the Embassy of Jamaica in Washington, D.C. on April 8, during which he credited the diaspora as among the country’s most influential ambassadors and unveiling a landmark tourism milestone.

(Sources: The Jamaica Tourism Board, WIC News, Bank of Jamaica, STATIN)