A Trump-Xi Deal Could Revive US Energy Exports To China
- U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping on May 14 to 15, where U.S. officials say a deal for Beijing to buy more U.S. energy could be under consideration. Tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war have halted most Chinese imports of U.S. oil and LNG, which were worth $8.4 billion in 2024, the year before Trump began his second term.
- China's imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) have tended to swing with geopolitical events, creating an opening should ties improve. During the trade war in 2019, during Trump's first term, Chinese imports of U.S. LNG fell to just 260,000 metric tons despite China's overall imports of the superchilled fuel rising 15% to 59.4 million tons that
- Two years and a trade deal later, the U.S. exported 8.98 million tons of LNG to China, becoming its third-largest LNG supplier of the year, narrowly behind the second-largest, Qatar.
- By 2024, that had fallen to 4.15 million tons and then dropped to 26,000 tons in 2025 after China imposed a total tariff of 25% on U.S. LNG in the tit-for-tat trade war.
- Falling imports obscure purchases by Chinese buyers such as PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to honour long-term contracts with U.S. producers signed between 2021 and 2023. The cargoes are being resold to Europe to avoid paying tariffs at home. Rystad Energy estimates around 12 million tons are contracted for delivery this year.
- Analysts estimate U.S. LNG would be cheaper than Asian spot cargoes if Beijing removed its 25% tariff, given the market disruptions triggered by the Iran war. However, any increase in imports would likely be limited, as China is expected to see another year of sluggish LNG demand.
- For context, Chinese imports of U.S. oil peaked at about 395,000 barrels per day in 2020 after the Phase 1 trade deal, accounting for just less than 4% of China’s total crude imports. In 2024, before Trump returned to office, China imported 193,000 bpd, worth $6 billion. China has not imported any U.S. oil since May 2025 due to a 20% import tariff imposed during the trade war, offsetting that with higher shipments from countries such as Canada and Brazil.
(Source: Reuters)