Bahamas to Outperform IMF Projections With Growth ‘Just Below’ 3.8%

• The Bahamas Central Bank’s governor yesterday predicted The Bahamas will once again confound the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other observers by outperforming their 2026 expectations, with full-year growth set to come in “just below” last year’s 3.8%. This outlook is premised on stronger-than-expected tourism activity, sustained foreign direct investment, resilient construction activity, expanding private sector credit and improving labour market conditions, which have underpinned growth during the first half of the year.
• John Rolle, speaking at the regulator’s half-year economic developments conference, said the economy maintained healthy growth during the first half despite facing headwinds from higher inflation driven by rising world oil and fuel prices, ever-present geopolitical uncertainties and frequent, prolonged power outages at home.
• On a year- to-date basis, total arrivals expanded by 14.2% to 6.1 million visitors. Contributing to this development, sea passengers advanced by 15.9% to 5.2 million, while air traffic registered a 4.8% rebound to 0.9 million visitors, vis-à-vis an incremental contraction of 1.0% in 2025. According to the latest data provided by Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD), total departures, net of domestic traffic, increased by 3.9% to 153,704 in June, relative to the comparative period of 2025.
• In the six-months to June, total outbound traffic recovered by 5.0% to 0.9 million, after the cumulative reduction of 2.3% in 2025. In particular, international traffic increased by 35.1% to 168,356, while US departures stabilized at 0.7 million. Foreign investment remained concentrated in resort developments, residential real estate projects and private cruise destinations, supporting construction activity and creating both temporary and permanent jobs.
• Mr Rolle said inflation has accelerated because of higher fuel costs and rising prices for imported goods and services stemming from geopolitical tensions. “Turning to inflation, recent firming was evident, owing to higher prices for imported fuel, impacting transportation costs and a range of elevated pricing on other imports,” he said. Average consumer price inflation, as measured by the All-Bahamas Retail Price Index, increased to 2.1% during the 12 months to April 2026, after registering a 0.2% decline in the corresponding period of 2025. 
• While domestic electricity prices have been partially shielded by Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) fuel hedge, higher generation costs could eventually filter through once those protections expire.
• That said, the economy continues to face significant external risks, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, persistent tariff uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence in key tourism markets. Nevertheless, tourism, foreign investment, employment growth and domestic lending are all expected to remain supportive of continued economic expansion.

(Sources: The Tribune and the Central Bank of the Bahamas)