Jamaica Welcomes 2.34Mn Visitors, Earns US$2.5Bn Despite Challenges

• Jamaica welcomed 2.34Mn visitors and generated approximately US$2.50Bn in tourism earnings as at August 31, 2026. However, arrivals and earnings remained 17.0% and 18.0% below the corresponding 2025 levels, respectively, reflecting the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa on the sector’s operating capacity and softer demand amid elevated travel costs.
• The decline in arrivals primarily reflects the combined impact of reduced accommodation and airlift capacity, although higher airfares have likely also weighed on demand. Approximately 70.0% of the country’s room stock is currently operational, with several high-demand properties among the remaining 30.0% that are still offline.
• Demand for Jamaica has nevertheless remained relatively firm, with visitor arrivals recovering faster than room inventory. Airlines have maintained their routes to the island, with available flights reportedly operating at high load factors, which has helped preserve the country’s relationship with airline partners
• However, airlift remains below pre-hurricane levels and continues to face both domestic and global constraints. Reduced service on key US routes and the loss of Spirit Airlines have limited lower-cost seat availability to Jamaica. More broadly, delayed aircraft and engine deliveries, spare-parts shortages and constrained maintenance capacity are restricting airlines’ ability to expand fleets and routes. These pressures, together with elevated fuel costs, have raised operating expenses and contributed to higher airfares.
• The recovery also faces external headwinds from the global aviation industry, where elevated oil prices, due to the US-Iran conflict, have translated into higher airfares and limited airlift capacity. Elevated travel costs could temper demand, particularly among price-sensitive visitors, and slow the conversion of restored room inventory into stronger arrivals and tourism earnings.
• The restoration of the remaining room stock is expected to extend from late 2026 into Q1 2027, limiting the pace at which visitor arrivals and earnings can return to pre-hurricane levels. This timeline is consistent with the Government’s earlier expectation that room capacity would approach 95.0% by December 2026 and be fully restored during Q1 2027.
• Near-term tourism activity is therefore likely to remain below its 2025 performance, as accommodation shortages, reduced airlift and elevated travel costs constrain the recovery. However, average expenditure per visitor remained relatively stable at approximately US$1,068, compared with US$1,082 in the prior year, indicating that the decline in tourism earnings has been driven primarily by lower arrivals rather than weaker visitor spending. The phased reopening of major properties should support a stronger recovery through late 2026 and into 2027, providing an important lift to services exports and broader economic activity.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)