Guyana more than doubles 2026 oil revenue forecast to US$6.5Bn

• Guyana is now projected to receive approximately US$6.5Bn from oil sales and royalties in 2026, more than double the US$2.7Bn forecast at the beginning of the year. The revision, contained in the government’s 2026 Mid-Year Report published September 14, is an increase of nearly US$3.8Bn, or about 137%. The stronger projection reflects both higher oil prices and declining cost recovery at the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block.
• Under the Stabroek Block production sharing agreement, up to 75% of crude produced can be allocated to recover eligible contractor costs, with the remainder treated as profit oil and split equally between Guyana and the contractors. With a substantial portion of historical development spending now recovered, fewer barrels are needed to pay back those costs, so more production becomes profit and Guyana receives more cargoes without a matching increase in output.
• Prices have amplified the effect, with crude running well above the government’s initial expectations during 2026 amid conflict in the Middle East. Output has also run ahead of projections, averaging approximately 899,000 barrels per day (b/d) over the first eight months against a forecast of about 840,000 b/d, roughly 59,000 b/d or 7% higher, all before the Uaru development produced a single barrel.
• The stronger performance is already visible in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). Guyana received more than US$2.3Bn (GY$480.55Bn) from oil sales and royalties in the first seven months of the year, and a further US$776.3 million (GY$161.86Bn) was deposited in August from profit oil sales, according to the Bank of Guyana. That took eight-month revenue to approximately US$3.08Bn (GY$642.41Bn), surpassing the original full-year projection of about US$2.79Bn with four months still to run, and left the NRF at roughly US$4.89Bn (GY$1.02Tn) at the end of August, above the GY$1 trillion mark for the first time.
• Four floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels are producing at Stabroek: Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity and ONE GUYANA. The Errea Wittu FPSO serving Uaru is expected to begin production later this year and is designed for up to 250,000 b/d once fully ramped, lifting installed capacity well beyond one million b/d. Guyana’s oil and gas sector is projected to generate about US$27.3Bn in export earnings in 2026, making the government’s projected take equivalent to roughly 23.8% of that total. ExxonMobil operates the block with a 45% interest, alongside Chevron (through Hess) at 30% and CNOOC at 25%.

(Source: OilNOW)